The next two weeks will bring more cold than warmth across the central and eastern states, with arctic air repeatedly reinforcing across the region while warmth gets redirected to the West. According to DirectWeather, the weather pattern at this point in the season sits in an awkward transition between winter and spring, and forecasters are tracking multiple significant threats in the coming days.
A cold front that pushed through Thursday brought more thunderstorm activity than anticipated across the Southeast, with the Storm Prediction Center upgrading the risk two levels. Snowfall on the back end of the front also exceeded expectations, reaching into North Carolina and Virginia.
The next system is already developing, with a low pressure center dropping out of the Dakotas toward the Great Lakes. By Sunday, March 15, a strong low over Illinois is expected to drive a notable warm-up across the Ohio Valley, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic, but that warmth will be brief. A cold front and renewed arctic air dive will follow rapidly, with temperatures running 15 to 25 degrees below normal by Tuesday, March 17, returning to conditions reminiscent of January and February.
Severe weather is a concern Sunday into Monday for Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, and potentially Illinois. Significant snowfall is expected across the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes during the same period.
The pattern does not settle after that. Clipper systems continue to track through the Great Lakes into the following week, with another warmup and cooldown cycle expected around March 19th to 21st. Even a late-season snow event for the Smoky Mountains is possible by March 26th, though that remains well within the range of model uncertainty.
Total precipitation over the next two weeks is projected near normal for most areas, with heavier snowfall totals expected in the Cascades, Rockies, Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast.
