Halloween 2025 Weather Forecast / Outlook / Prediction
Published October 7, 2025
The following forecast synthesizes data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), long-range meteorological models, and regional climatological patterns to provide a comprehensive outlook for Halloween weather across the United States on October 31, 2025. Influenced by a developing La Niña phase, characterized by cooler sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, the forecast indicates a divergence in conditions: cooler, wetter patterns in northern regions and warmer, drier conditions in southern areas. Regional projections are detailed below, with temperature ranges, precipitation probabilities, and notable meteorological phenomena.
Northeast: Cool Temperatures with Localized Precipitation In the Northeast, encompassing urban centers (e.g., New York City) and rural areas (e.g., New England), daytime temperatures are projected to range from 10–16°C (50–60°F), decreasing to 7–10°C (45–50°F) by evening. Higher elevations in the Appalachians and Adirondacks may experience transient snow flurries, with accumulations under 2 cm expected above 1,500 meters. Scattered showers are forecast for coastal cities (e.g., Philadelphia, Boston), with a 20–30% probability of precipitation, though total rainfall is expected to remain below 5 mm. Wind chills may reduce apparent temperatures to 2–4°C (35–40°F) after sunset. Likelihood of Favorable Conditions: High for outdoor activities, though a potential nor’easter may develop by November 1, increasing cloud cover and precipitation risk.
Midwest and Great Lakes: Cold Fronts and Lake-Effect Winds The Midwest, including Chicago and Minneapolis, will see daytime highs of 13–16°C (55–60°F), with evening lows of 2–7°C (35–45°F). Lake-effect winds, reaching 25–35 km/h (15–20 mph) off Lake Michigan and Lake Superior, may enhance localized cooling. Northern areas (e.g., Duluth, Marquette) face a 40% chance of snow squalls, with accumulations of 1–3 cm possible. Southern regions (e.g., Illinois, Ohio) have a 30% probability of light showers (<3 mm). Likelihood of Favorable Conditions: Moderate, suitable for outdoor activities with precautions for wind and potential slick surfaces.
South: Warm Conditions with Isolated Thunderstorms The Southeast, including Atlanta and Charleston, will experience daytime highs of 21–24°C (70–75°F), with evening temperatures of 15–18°C (60–65°F). Humidity levels of 60–80% are anticipated, particularly in coastal areas. A cold front may trigger thunderstorms in the west-central South (e.g., Houston to Memphis), with a 35% precipitation probability and potential for lightning. Florida’s panhandle is expected to reach 27°C (80°F) with minimal precipitation (<10% chance). Likelihood of Favorable Conditions: High, ideal for outdoor activities, though localized storms may disrupt evening plans.
Plains: Variable Temperatures with Low Precipitation The Plains region exhibits a latitudinal gradient. Northern Plains (e.g., North Dakota) will see daytime temperatures of 10–13°C (50–55°F) and evening lows of 2–7°C (35–45°F), with a 20% chance of light snow (<2 cm). Southern Plains (e.g., Oklahoma, Kansas) are forecast to reach 18–21°C (65–70°F), with dry conditions prevailing (<10% precipitation probability). Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the central Plains, with a 15% chance of hail. Likelihood of Favorable Conditions: High, particularly in southern areas, with minimal disruption expected.
West Coast: Mild with Regional Precipitation Coastal areas from Seattle to San Diego will experience daytime temperatures of 15–21°C (60–70°F). The Pacific Northwest faces a 50% chance of light drizzle (<5 mm), while Southern California is expected to remain dry with clear skies. Inland Rockies above 2,100 meters may see snow accumulations of 5–10 cm. Wildfire smoke risk is low, though dry conditions in the Southwest (e.g., Phoenix, 27°C/80°F) elevate fire potential. Likelihood of Favorable Conditions: Moderate, with coastal drizzle posing minor challenges.
Southwest and Rockies: Warm Lowlands, Cool Highlands Low desert regions (e.g., Tucson) will reach 29°C (85°F) with negligible precipitation (<5% chance). Higher elevations in the Rockies (e.g., Denver) will range from 10–16°C (50–60°F), with a 25% chance of graupel or light snow above 2,000 meters. Monsoon-like systems may produce isolated flash flooding in arroyos, though the probability is low (<10%). Likelihood of Favorable Conditions: High in lowlands, moderate in highlands due to temperature variability.
Conclusion: The 2025 Halloween forecast indicates diverse meteorological conditions across the U.S., driven by La Niña dynamics. Northern regions face cooler temperatures and higher precipitation risks, while southern areas benefit from warmer, drier conditions. Outdoor activities are generally feasible, though localized phenomena (e.g., snow flurries, thunderstorms) may necessitate precautions. Consult regional radar and updated NOAA forecasts closer to October 31 for precise planning.
