As we edge closer to the fall season in 2025, weather enthusiasts are already buzzing about what the winter weather forecast might hold. In a YouTube video posted this week, titled “Early Season Arctic Cold – 2025-26 Winter Update” (watch it here), the host dives into the latest indicators from the northern hemisphere, drawing comparisons to past winters and highlighting patterns that could shape the months ahead.
Based on the transcript, this update paints a picture of building Arctic cold, increased snow cover, and potential La Niña influences. Let’s break it down and explore what it could mean for North America, especially as the upcoming weather forecasts predict varied winter conditions, crucial details that any winter weather forecast should analyze.
Snow Cover in Siberia: A Key Indicator of Colder Times Ahead
The video kicks off with a striking comparison: more snow on the ground across Siberia this year compared to last. Using satellite imagery, the host overlays views from a year ago against current conditions, showing expanded snow in Siberia, Alaska, and even areas west of Greenland. “One or two?” the host quips, like an eye doctor testing lenses, emphasizing the clear difference in winter weather trends.
Why does this matter? Snow cover creates a feedback loop. As snow accumulates, it reflects sunlight and keeps the ground colder, allowing even more cold air to build, an essential aspect of winter weather forecasts. The forecast calls for additional snowfall in Siberia, which could amplify this effect. Over in Alaska, temperatures are already plummeting, with predictions of near-zero or below-zero readings in the mountains by month’s end. The Arctic is gearing up for a chill, and the big question isn’t if it’ll be cold up north—it’s how that cold will spill southward, according to the winter forecasts.
Pacific Patterns and the Jet Stream’s Role
Shifting focus to the oceans, the video highlights warm waters in the North Pacific—dubbed the “Pacific blob.” These above-average temperatures could drive significant storm activity, especially when clashing with the building Arctic cold. The host predicts a jet stream dip into the Pacific Northwest come late November and December, potentially blocking some cold air from pushing south but also fueling big storms, as anticipated by winter forecasts.
If warm air surges into Alaska and British Columbia, it has to displace somewhere—likely leading to colder plunges across other parts of North America. Drawing from last year’s snow totals, the host suggests this winter could look quite different, with more variability driven by factors like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific dynamics, which all play a role in shaping the winter weather forecast.
NOAA’s official outlook leans toward a neutral ENSO pattern, but the host notes building cold water in the eastern Pacific, reminiscent of conditions in 2008-2009. This La Niña-like start to winter might mean more snow for certain regions, though it’s not a blanket prediction.
Echoes of 2008-2009: A Winter Analogy
One of the video’s highlights is its deep dive into the 2008-2009 winter as a potential analog. That year featured a western ridge and an eastern trough, leading to colder-than-average temps in the upper Midwest and northern Plains. North Dakota, for instance, saw record-heavy snow and one of its wettest winters. The Pacific Northwest also chilled down, while Texas stayed warmer with less moisture.
Translating that to 2025-26, the host sketches a meandering jet stream that could bring northwest flow events and “clipper” systems—fast-moving storms clipping down from Canada. This setup might deliver big snowstorms to the East Coast, though coastal areas like New Jersey could trend warmer. Inland spots from Pennsylvania to Kentucky might see colder conditions, with near-average temps in the Carolinas. The South? Snow remains a rarity, but trends point to colder overall in key northern areas, aligning with the winter forecasts. Hence, the winter weather forecasts are vital for these predictions.
Importantly, the video stresses this isn’t a precise forecast—just trends. More snow cover across North America could align with the 2008-2009 pattern, but variables like sea ice extent play a role too.
Sea Ice and Long-Term Trends: Not as Dire as You Might Think
Speaking of sea ice, the host pulls up charts dating back to the 1970s and 1980s. Current extent (shown in red) is below long-term averages but well above the 2012 low. Since 2014, this year’s levels are near the top of the pack—potentially the highest in over a decade. This suggests the Arctic cold is forming robustly, setting the stage for southward movement included in the winter forecasts.
However, the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for October-November-December isn’t painting a frigid picture overall. The host counters that this might not hold, expecting “plenty of shots of cold air” as winter ramps up in the upcoming winter weather forecast.
Wrapping It Up: Stay Tuned for Weekly Updates
This video is part of a weekly series tracking northern hemisphere developments, from Siberian snow to Arctic ice and North American cold expansion. If you’re into daily weather breakdowns, the channel offers those too, covering everything from severe weather to lingering hurricane season threats.
In summary, the 2025-26 winter update signals an early Arctic buildup that could lead to a colder, snowier season for parts of North America, echoing patterns from 2008-2009. While not everyone will see blizzards, the interplay of snow cover, ocean temps, and atmospheric oscillations points to an active winter. If you’re planning holidays or outdoor activities, keep an eye on these trends—Mother Nature might have some surprises in store within the winter forecasts.
