January-February-March 2026 Seasonal Snowfall Outlook: NOAA’s latest forecast paints a picture of high snowfall in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.
Today, September 25th, 2025, brings us deeper into fall, but ski enthusiasts are already eyeing the white stuff ahead. NOAA’s latest winter forecast, dropped on September 18th, 2025, paints a promising picture for snowfall, but not for everywhere. While the Southwest and parts of the Northeast might see some subpar snowfall, the real snow action is brewing in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. These areas could see enhanced snowpack potential, colder temps to keep the flakes, and conditions that might make this a top year for snowfall.
Seasonal Snowfall Potential (January – March 2026)
NOAA’s outlook leans heavily on precipitation trends combined with temperature probabilities to forecast snow accumulation. Zeroing in on regions where above-normal moisture meets below-normal temps shows where the deepest, lasting snow is most likely.
- Pacific Northwest (Western Washington, Western Oregon, Western Idaho, Western Montana): 33–50% chance of above-normal precipitation and 33–60% chance of below-normal temperatures favor heavy snowfall, especially in the Cascades and Olympics.
- Northern Rockies and Northern Plains (Eastern Montana, Northern Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota): 40–70% chance of above-normal precipitation and 40–50% chance of below-average temperatures suggest robust snow accumulation. Frequent and significant snow events are possible throughout the region.
- Northeast (Northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine): Neutral chance of normal precipitation, but 40–60% chance of warmer temperatures may limit snow to higher elevations. Higher-altitude areas could see reliable snow, while lower areas may face mixed precipitation.
- Southwest (Sierra Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico): 60–80% chance of below-normal precipitation indicates low snowfall potential, even with near-average temperatures.
- Central U.S. (Midwest, Four Corners): Equal probabilities for precipitation and temperature suggest average snowfall, with potential for localized enhancements. Snowfall will depend on transient weather patterns, offering inconsistent but occasional opportunities.
Implications For Winter Planning
The Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies stand out as the most reliable destinations for heavy snowfall, with conditions supporting early-season snowpack development and sustained accumulation through March. Ski resorts in these regions could see extended seasons. The Northeast offers opportunities for decent snowfall at higher elevations, though warmer temperatures may complicate snow quality. The Southwest faces a lean season and will likely require strategic timing for optimal conditions.
