October 2025 Temperature and Precipitation Outlook: NOAA forecasts a warmer October across much of the United States, creating a potentially difficult start to the ski and snowboard season.
With October just around the corner, many people are wondering what’s in store weather-wise for the next month. For many, September saw hard cold snaps and variable weather. While it’s impossible to know exactly what the weather will look like in the coming month, it is possible to look at climate trends to determine the likelihood of above or below average temperatures and precipitation in specific regions.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association‘s Climate Prediction Center releases monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks for the month ahead. The most recent update for October 2025, released on September 18th, 2025, is looking a little disappointing for skiers and snowboarders hoping for an early start to the season, with higher chances of warm temperatures existing across the state.
October 2025 Temperature Outlook:
October 2025 Temperature Outlook:NOAA’s monthly temperature outlook for October 2025, issued on September 18, 2025, indicates a varied forecast across the U.S., with a strong tilt toward above-normal temperatures in several regions, particularly the West, South, and Northeast, while the central U.S. shows more uncertainty. Here’s the regional breakdown:
- Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, northern California, western Idaho): Leaning above normal (33-50% probability). Milder conditions are expected, with a slight chance for warmer-than-average temperatures.
- Southwest (Southern California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, New Mexico): Likely to very likely above normal (60-90% probability). Significantly warmer temperatures are favored, especially in the desert regions.
- Rockies and Great Basin (Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, eastern Idaho): Leaning above normal (33-50% probability), with higher probabilities (60-80%) in parts of Colorado and southern Wyoming. Above-average warmth is indicated, particularly southward.
- Texas and Southern Plains (Texas, Oklahoma, western Arkansas): Leaning above normal (33-50% probability). Warmer trends are anticipated, with a gradual increase in likelihood toward the south.
- Southeast (Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, the Carolinas): Leaning above normal (33-50% probability). Milder-than-average temperatures are favored, with a slight uptick in probability in Florida.
- Northeast (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut): Very likely above normal (70-90% probability). Strongly warmer conditions are forecast, especially in New England.
- Mid-Atlantic (Virginia, West Virginia): Leaning above normal (40-60% probability). Above-normal warmth is favored, aligning with the Northeast’s strong signal.
- Central Plains and Midwest (North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota): Equal chances. No strong signal for above- or below-normal temperatures, indicating a balanced outlook.
- Alaska: Leaning above normal (33-40% probability) in the south and southeast; equal chances in the interior and north. Warmer coastal areas are slightly favored, while inland regions remain neutral.
October 2025 Precipitation Outlook:
NOAA’s monthly precipitation outlook for October 2025, issued on September 18, 2025, presents a mixed forecast across the U.S., with drier-than-normal conditions favored in the central and southern regions, while wetter patterns are indicated for parts of the Northwest and Southeast. The outlook uses probabilistic shading to show the likelihood of precipitation being above, below, or equal to historical averages. Here’s the regional breakdown based solely on the provided image:
- Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, northern California, western Idaho): Likely above normal (60-70% probability). Wetter conditions are strongly favored, suggesting increased rainfall potential.
- Northern Rockies (Western Montana, northern Idaho): Leaning above normal (40-50% probability). Slightly enhanced precipitation chances are indicated, potentially bringing more moisture to the region.
- Intermountain West (Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado): Equal chances. No strong signal for above- or below-normal precipitation, pointing to typical October variability.
- Southwest (Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico): Equal chances. A neutral outlook suggests no dominant trend, with possible scattered showers.
- Texas and Southern Plains (Texas, Oklahoma, eastern New Mexico): Likely below normal (60-80% probability). Drier conditions are favored, especially across central Texas.
- Central Plains (Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota): Leaning below normal (33-50% probability). Reduced precipitation chances are indicated, potentially leading to drier conditions.
- Mid-South (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, eastern Texas): Likely below normal (70-90% probability). Significantly drier weather is expected, with the highest probability in this region.
- Southeast (Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee): Equal chances. No strong signal, suggesting typical precipitation patterns with possible variability.
- Florida: Leaning above normal (50-60% probability). Enhanced precipitation chances are indicated, likely due to tropical moisture influence.
- Midwest and Great Lakes (Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota): Equal chances. A balanced outlook with no dominant trend for wet or dry conditions.
- Northeast (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, West Virginia, Virginia): Equal chances. Typical uncertainty, with equal odds for above- or below-normal precipitation.
- Alaska: Equal chances in most areas; leaning above normal (33-40% probability) in the southeast panhandle. Slightly wetter conditions are favored along the southeastern coast, while other regions remain neutral.
What This Means For Skiers and Snowboarders:
The NOAA October 2025 temperature and precipitation outlook suggests a challenging start for skiers and snowboarders across the U.S. Above-normal temperatures in the Southwest, Rockies, and Northeast may delay early snow, especially in lower elevations. Drier conditions in the Central Plains and Mid-South could limit natural snowpack buildup, while wetter forecasts in the Pacific Northwest offer little skiing benefit.
