2025 Fall Weather Outlook: Warm temperatures are expected to persist across the country through late September into early October.
As we approach the end of September 2025, weather patterns across the United States are shaping up to be relatively stable, with above-average temperatures dominating much of the country.
Based on insights from Direct Weather’s newest forecast released on September 18th, 2025, this warmer-than-normal fall could actually set the stage for a potentially colder winter ahead. While the immediate forecast lacks dramatic shifts, it’s worth noting how these conditions might influence snowpack buildup in key regions. For winter fans tracking early indicators for ski season, here’s a breakdown of the latest temperature and precipitation outlooks.
Temperature Outlook: Widespread Warmth with No Major Cooldowns in Sight
The 6- to 10-day temperature outlook, covering September 24 to 28, shows above-normal conditions from coast to coast. Warmer temperatures are expected along the West Coast and in the Upper Midwest extending to the Eastern Seaboard. The closest to normal readings will likely occur in areas like Kansas, Oklahoma, North Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Missouri, Alabama, and Tennessee.
Shifting to the 8- to 14-day outlook for September 26 through October 2, near-normal temperatures are anticipated along the West Coast, while warmer conditions prevail in the central and eastern U.S. Earlier discussions about a potential late-September cooldown have faded, aligning with updated model guidance. These long-range forecasts are treated as possibilities rather than certainties, and adjustments like this are common.
Looking back at the past 20 days, from the final days of August into mid-September, patterns reflect early-month warmth in the West contrasted with intense Arctic blasts in the central and eastern states. As September progresses, these anomalies may soften, potentially leading to a neutral or slightly above-average finish for the month, depending on the intensity of any late warmth.
Models like the GFS indicate warmth will continue to dominate, with no significant backdoor cold fronts (those moving from the northeast southward) making a lasting impact. However, by early October, around the 4th, there could be a warm push along the West that encourages cooler air to filter into the central and eastern regions. This timeframe is now under watch for a possible pattern shift.
Precipitation and Storminess: Spotty Relief for Drought Areas
Storminess remains limited, with no major surge in precipitation for drought-stricken regions. Evening activity on September 19 focuses on the Midwest and Plains, areas that don’t urgently need it compared to further east.
- Friday, September 20: Continued activity in the Midwest and Southwest.
- Saturday, September 21: Some storminess in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, but dryness persists in the Ohio Valley and Northeast.
- Sunday, September 22: Precipitation spreads from the Midwest and Great Lakes eastward, with notable activity in the Northwest.
- Monday, September 23: Storminess across the Rockies, Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.
- Tuesday, September 24: Showery conditions hit the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, plus the Deep South and Southern Plains, beneficial for precipitation-needy areas in the South.
- Wednesday, September 25: Potential thunderstorms or severe weather in the Deep South, with widespread beneficial rain.
- Thursday, September 26: Thunderstorms shift to the Southeast and Ohio Valley.
- Friday, September 27: A surge of precipitation into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, though short-lived.
- Saturday, September 28: Activity clears out quickly.
- Sunday, September 29: Quiet in the central and eastern U.S., but the Northwest sees beneficial precipitation as its wet season ramps up early.
- Monday, September 30: Focus on the Southeast and Northwest.
- Tuesday, October 1, through Friday, October 3: Minimal activity overall.
Total precipitation forecasts highlight saturated conditions in the central Plains, central Midwest, Ohio Valley, Southeast, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic. The West also looks impressive for this time of year. Anomalies show above-average amounts in these greener areas, but dryness lingers in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic coastline, Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
Why This Warm Fall Could Signal a Strong Winter Ahead
While the forecast might seem uneventful, warmer fall temperatures in the U.S. often correlate with positive developments for late fall and winter. A frigid fall isn’t ideal for a cold winter; instead, periods of normal to above-normal warmth allow for cooler conditions over the Arctic, fostering snowpack and ice buildup. This is tied to the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), where cooler Arctic air strengthens polar regions rather than spilling southward prematurely.
Historical patterns support this: Last year’s warmer October and early November preceded a notably cold winter overall, despite variable snow in some spots. If positive AO phases persist through fall, it could enhance conditions for severe cold later on, good news for those eyeing robust snow seasons in mountain resorts.
