Winter Weather Forecast / Outlook / Prediction 2025-2026
Today, we bring you a winter weather forecast from Meteorologist Chris Tomer that was uploaded on September 9th, 2025.
As the leaves turn and the air crisps up, skiers and winter lovers are buzzing with one question: What’s in store for the 2025-2026 snow season? Meteorologist Chris Tomer, a seasoned forecaster with years of tracking Pacific patterns, dives deep into the data. His verdict? A “La Niña light” is set to steer storms northward, delivering powder-packed winters for the Pacific Northwest while leaving southern slopes thirsting for more. If you’re planning a Tetons trip or a Tahoe getaway, this forecast could make or break your bucket list.
In this guide, we’ll break down Tomer’s predictions, from jet stream shenanigans to resort-specific snowfall outlooks. Plus, actionable tips to prep your gear and travel plans. Whether you’re a backcountry pro or a cozy cabin dreamer, here’s everything you need to know about the winter ahead.
What Drives This Winter’s Wild Ride? Enter La Niña
Winter forecasts aren’t crystal balls, but they’re grounded in ocean temps and atmospheric vibes. Tomer points to the Niño 3.4 region in the South Pacific – the La Niña/El Niño heartbeat. Right now, we’re neutral, but models scream “La Niña watch.”
“We’re watching for colder than normal waters in the South Pacific… somewhere between minus .5 and one for a brief time October, November, December. And that’s just enough to influence the winter pattern around here.”
That’s cooler waters (0 to -1°C) peaking late fall, echoing last winter’s -0.6°C chill but fading by January. Why does it matter? La Niña cranks the jet stream northward, funneling storms to higher latitudes. Think: Reliable dumps in Washington and Idaho, while Arizona and New Mexico play the dry card.
Tomer’s data dive includes the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and European model, both painting blues (cold anomalies) in that key equatorial zone through December. By spring? Back to neutral, but the early La Niña nudge sets the tone.
Atmospheric Rivers: California’s Wild Card for Wet Winters
Don’t write off the Golden State yet. Tomer flags “atmospheric rivers” – those Pineapple Express highways sucking moisture from Hawaii straight to the Sierra Nevada.
“I think we’re going to have some of that this winter… a conveyor belt escorts in a lot of Pacific moisture into California.”
Expect a few pulses, especially December into January, juicing Tahoe and Mammoth. But it’s no domination – dual jet streams (cold northern + warm subtropical) will merge sporadically, keeping things balanced. Fall favors the Pacific Northwest (October-November), shifting south for Sierra prime time.
For the interior Rockies? A northwest flow regime spells glory. Wyoming, Utah’s Wasatch, and northwest Colorado could see epic base-building.
The Winners: Above-Normal Snowfall
- Pacific Northwest Powerhouses: Washington (Crystal, Stevens Pass), Idaho (Sun Valley, Brundage) – Expect 10-20%+ above average, thanks to that steadfast storm track.
- Utah’s Wasatch Front: Alta, Snowbird, Snowbasin – All green. Powder hounds, mark your calendars.
- Wyoming’s Big Boys: Jackson Hole, Grand Targhee, Big Sky – The Tetons to Granite Peak scream above-normal. Tomer: “That’s a pretty solid storm track for that area.”
- Northwest Colorado: Steamboat, Winter Park (tipping green) – Interior Rockies feast on northwest flow.
The Steady Eddies: Normal Snowfall
- Central/Southern Colorado: Vail, Breckenridge, Telluride – Right on average. Front Range (Loveland, Keystone) holds steady.
- Tahoe and Northern California: Normal unless ARs go wild – could nudge up.
- Northeast U.S.: 98% yellow. Vermont’s heart (Stowe, Killington) and New Hampshire average out. Only Jay Peak and Sugarloaf tip green in the far north.
The Dry Spells: Below-Normal Snowfall
- Southern Utah/Colorado: Brian Head, Telluride’s southern kin – 1-20% below.
- New Mexico/Arizona: Taos, Angel Fire, Santa Fe – Tough sledding (pun intended).
- Southern California: Big Bear, Mammoth (unless rivers rage) – Lean times.
| Region | Key Resorts | Forecast | % Deviation Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pacific NW | Sun Valley, Brundage | Above Normal (Green) | +5-20% |
| Wasatch, UT | Alta, Snowbird | Above Normal (Green) | +1-20% |
| Tetons, WY | Jackson Hole, Big Sky | Above Normal (Green) | +5-20% |
| Central CO | Vail, Breckenridge | Normal (Yellow) | ±1-5% |
| Tahoe, CA | Heavenly, Northstar | Normal (Yellow) | ±0-10% (AR boost possible) |
| Southern UT/NM | Brian Head, Taos | Below Normal (Red) | -1-20% |
Pro Tip: Use NOAA’s snowfall calculator or apps like OpenSnow for hyper-local tweaks as the season unfolds.
Northeast Outlook: A Classic, If Unremarkable, Winter
East Coasters, temper expectations. Tomer sees a vanilla vibe: Normal across New York, Massachusetts, and most of Vermont/New Hampshire.
“Most places, I’d say 98% of the resorts I think are going to be in the yellow with this. Um, a pretty normal winter.”
Exceptions? Northern Maine’s Sugarloaf and Vermont’s Jay Peak could edge green. Ice climbers and cross-country skiers: Bundle up for consistent cold, but don’t bank on blizzards.
The Bottom Line: A Tale of Two Winters
Tomer wraps it poetically: A brief La Niña flirtation births a northern-biased jet, spiced with atmospheric rivers. Northern tier snow lovers: Your season’s looking legendary. Southern sun-seekers: Pivot north or embrace the bluebird days.
“I think this is where we’re going to see the most consistent storm systems, the northwest flow, and the most consistent cold fronts.”
As September 2025 chills into October, keep an eye on those Pacific chills. Got a favorite slope? Drop it in the comments – what’s your white whale winter trip?
Chris Tomer is a veteran meteorologist specializing in Western U.S. patterns. This forecast draws from NMME, European models, and historical cycles. Remember, weather’s a forecast, not fate – check local updates.
Sources: Chris Tomer Weather transcript (Sept 2025); NOAA ENSO data.
