As the leaves begin to change color and the days get cooler, our thoughts naturally shift toward the upcoming winter season. For skiers and snowboarders, early forecasts provide a glimpse of hope into potential snow conditions. While long-range predictions come with plenty of uncertainties, Direct Weather has shared an outlook for the 2025-2026 winter, covering temperature, precipitation, and snowfall trends across the U.S.
Direct Weather Seasonal Temperature Outlook for 2025-2026
The West is poised for above-normal temperatures, particularly along the coast and inland areas, driven by warm ocean influences pushing mild air onshore. This warmth is expected to be shielded by the Rockies, limiting its reach eastward.
In contrast, below-normal temperatures are forecasted for the Plains eastward to the East Coast, including the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. A positive PNA pattern, ridging in the West and troughing in the East, could amplify this cooling, potentially leading to polar vortex events in northern areas.
Seasonal Precipitation Outlook for 2025-2026
Precipitation patterns show a divide, with below-average rainfall and snow anticipated in the Southwest, including southern California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico due to a subdued southern jet stream.
Direct Weather expects above-average precipitation in the Northwest, with storms onshore meeting a northern jet stream. This could extend eastward, benefiting the northern Plains, upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast with frequent systems, including clippers and potential nor’easters.
Winter Snowfall Chance Outlook for 2025-2026
Snowfall chances vary by region and elevation. Below-average opportunities are likely in the Southwest, where warmer temperatures and drier conditions reduce snow potential, though higher elevations like the Sierra Nevada and southern Rockies may still see accumulation.
Above-average snowfall chances cover much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, with the northern Plains, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes standing out for potentially massive snowy winters. The Northwest mountains could see average to above-average snow despite milder lows as precipitation plays a key role. Southern areas face rare but elevated chances for unusual snow events.
Regional Winter Forecast Highlights
- Northwest: Milder temperatures with average to slightly above precipitation. Reduced low-elevation snow but solid mountain packs.
- Southwest: Warm and dry, leading to below-average snowfall.
- Northern Rockies: Average to slightly above snowfall.
- Plains and Midwest: Cold and snowy, with frequent arctic blasts and high snowfall potential in the upper regions. Lake-effect snow around the Great Lakes depends on fall cooling.
- South: Cooler than normal with battle-zone storms mixing snow, ice, and rain. Rare deep-South snow opportunities exist.
- East Coast and Appalachians: Increased chances for major snowstorms, nor’easters, and even blizzards, especially if Atlantic patterns align.
