As winter approaches, skiers and snowboarders are eager to know what the 2025-2026 season has in store. Professional weather forecaster David Schlotthauer has shared his insights on the upcoming winter, predicting a season shaped by a weak La Niña and dynamic jet stream patterns. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect across the U.S. for December 2025 to March 2026.
A Weak La Niña Sets the Stage
Schlotthauer highlights a cold-neutral state in the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures slightly below average, signaling a weak La Niña. This oceanic setup will influence the jet stream, driving varied weather patterns across the country. A strong polar jet stream will dip from central Alaska into the northern U.S., bringing cooler air to the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Northern Plains, while a weaker subtropical jet limits storm activity in the South.
Regional Winter Outlook
Northern U.S.: Cold and Snowy
The northern tier, including the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and the Northeast, is in for a colder-than-average winter. Schlotthauer predicts extreme cold snaps, particularly in January and February, with potential record-low temperatures in the Upper Midwest and Canada. The Great Lakes region will see heavy lake-effect snow, making resorts in Michigan or New York prime spots.
Pacific Northwest: Wet and Snowy
Oregon and Washington are forecast to receive above-average precipitation, with mountain snows piling up in higher elevations. Resorts like Mt. Hood and Crystal Mountain could see excellent conditions for skiers and snowboarders. However, Schlotthauer notes a slight model discrepancy, with the Canadian CANSiPS model suggesting marginally drier conditions compared to wetter forecasts from other models.
California and the Southwest: Dry and Warm
Southern California, Nevada, Arizona, and the Four Corners region face a drier-than-average winter with heightened fire danger, especially in November and December due to Santa Ana winds. While Schlotthauer suggests equal chances for slightly above-average precipitation in parts of California, southern areas will likely remain warm and dry, challenging resorts in the area.
Deep South and Southeast: Warm and Dry
The Deep South, including Texas and Florida, will experience milder and drier conditions. A weaker subtropical jet reduces the likelihood of intense storms or flooding compared to past El Niño winters. However, a “battle zone” of storms could bring severe weather risks to Dixie Alley, including Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia, with potential nor’easters impacting the Southeast.
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: Stormy with Snow
The Northeast, including Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, will face stormy conditions with frequent snowstorms and possible blizzards. Resorts like Killington and Stowe are poised for a snowy season, ideal for winter sports enthusiasts. Schlotthauer emphasizes above-average precipitation in states like Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky, boosting snow prospects.
Plan Ahead for Winter Adventures
Schlotthauer’s forecast, aligned with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, underscores a winter of contrasts. Northern skiers can expect powder-packed slopes, while southern regions brace for milder, drier conditions.
