When it comes to weather forecasts, most people turn toward the National Weather Service, a local meteorologist, or their favorite weather app. These days weather forecasts are about 80% accurate 7 days out. When it comes to forecasting what the weather will look like in a few weeks or months, you generally have to turn toward sources like the National Oceanic National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration‘s Climate Prediction Center.
Predicting exactly what the winter will look like months ahead of time is near impossible, but some people believe leaning on folklore like the Woolly Bear Caterpillar is the way to do it.
Woolly Worms
The woolly bear caterpillar, or “Woolly Worm”, is the larva of the Isabella tiger moth. They tend to appear quite fluffy, earning them the “woolly” title. These caterpillars feature 13 distinct segments in their bodies, which many traditional forecasters associate with the 13 weeks of winter.
Their 13 segments are usually a rusty brown or black color. Generally the woolly bear features black coloration on both ends with rust colored segments in the middle, though they are occasionally mostly black or mostly rusty.
Forecasting the Winter With Woolly Bear Caterpillars
According to the Old Farmers’ Almanac, the folklore surrounding the Woolly Bear Caterpillar states that “the wider the rusty brown sections (or the more brown segments there are), the milder the coming winter will be. The more black there is, the more severe the winter.“
If you’re hoping to read these animals, you should keep an eye out for these fuzzy guys in the fall. They’re most active in the day, eating violets, lambs’ quarters, clover, and other plants. Once they’ve filled up, they turn their attention toward hunting down a spot to hide for the winter. You can often find them just crossing the road.
Once you do manage to find one, have a look at the colors of the bands and note what they foretell about your winter weather. If the rust colored band is wind, it will be a mild winter. The more black you see, the more severe the winter will be.
