As summer begins to wind down and we approach closer and closer to September, you’re mind is likely on leaf peeping, pumpkin carving, and other classic fall activities. But for those eager to see some snow, it’s never to early to start taking a look at 2026 winter weather forecasts. While predicting the exact weather for December, January, and February is basically impossible this far out, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration‘s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center provides valuable seasonal outlooks that can give skiers and snowboarders a glimpse into what the 2025/26 winter might have in store.
NOAA Seasonal Temperature Outlook for 2025/26
According to the latest Seasonal Temperature Outlook from NOAA, major portions of the United States area leaning toward a milder winter.
- East Coast, South, and Southwest: A 33-40% chance of above-normal temperatures is forecast for these regions. Ski resorts in these regions could see warmer-than-average conditions, potentially impacting early-season snowpack.
- Maine, Florida, Arizona, and Parts of California, Nevada, Utah, and New Mexico face a 40-50% chance of above-normal temperatures. This could mean more rain than snow at lower elevations, but higher elevations may still see top-notch conditions.
- Pacific Northwest (Western Washington and Northwest Oregon): Most of Washington and the northwest tip of Oregon are the only areas in the country with a a 33-40% chance of below-normal temperatures besides parts of Alaska. For ski resorts in these areas this could mean colder-than-average conditions, potentially leading to a deeper snowpack.
- Rest of the Lower 48: A majority of the United States, including much of the northern Rocky Mountains, have an equal chance of experiencing above- or below-normal temperatures.
NOAA Seasonal Precipitation Outlook for Winter 2025/26
- Southern U.S. (Ranging from the souther parts of California, Northern Arizona, New Mexico, Southern Nevada, Utah, and Colorado across the country toward the East Coast): A 33-40% chance of below-normal precipitation could mean drier conditions for resorts in the regions.
- Southern California, Arizona, Southwest New Mexico, Florida, and Southern East Coast: A 40-50% chance of below-normal precipitation could bring a thinner snowpack to the southwest-most ski resorts.
- Central Montana, Northern Wyoming, and Eastern Idaho: A 40-50% chance of above-normal precipitation in central Montana with a 33-40% chance extending to northern Wyoming and eastern Idaho could bring deep snow conditions to resorts in the region.
- Midwest and Great Lakes (Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky): A 33-40% chance of above-normal precipitation could bring solid ski and snowboard conditions to resorts in the Midwest and Great Lakes regions.
