Fall 2025 Weather Outlook: What You Need to Know for the Upcoming Season
As summer fades and August approaches, thoughts turn to cooler days, vibrant foliage, and harvest season. While precise weather predictions for September, October, and November (SON) are challenging this far out, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides seasonal outlooks for temperature and precipitation trends. For those curious about the 2025 fall weather prediction, these forecasts are influenced by ENSO-neutral conditions. This may potentially shift toward La Niña. Therefore, it is key for planning outdoor activities, travel, agriculture, and more. Combining NOAA’s insights with sources like The Old Farmer’s Almanac and severe-weather. We offer a comprehensive 2025 Fall Weather Prediction across the U.S. for non-technical users. It is enhanced with charts to visualize regional trends.
Why Seasonal Weather Outlooks Matter
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues three-month outlooks up to a year ahead. These guidelines help farmers time harvests, travelers plan fall foliage trips, and communities prepare for drought or flooding. There is a 56% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions through August-October. Increasing odds of La Niña may occur later, per NOAA’s ENSO forecast. Hence, patterns may shift toward cooler, drier conditions in some regions. However, warm trends dominate early fall. The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts warmer-than-normal conditions. Meanwhile, severe-weather.eu suggests a pattern reversal by November, potentially bringing seasonal or cooler air. Below, we detail NOAA’s outlooks issued on July 17, 2025. Regional insights and charts offer a clearer picture of the 2025 Fall Weather Prediction.
NOAA Seasonal Temperature Outlook for Fall 2025
NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature Outlook forecasts above-normal temperatures across most of the U.S. for SON. Decadal warming trends drive this. This aligns with The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s 2025 fall forecast, predicting warmer-than-average conditions, especially in the West. Cooler pockets may emerge in the North Central states and the interior Northeast. Models from severe-weather.eu note warmer anomalies in central and northern areas. There may be a potential shift to normal temperatures by November due to La Niña. Below is a chart showing the probability of above-normal temperatures by region, followed by a detailed breakdown. This analysis is essential for understanding the 2025 fall weather prediction and planning accordingly.
- Northeast and New England: A 40-50% chance of above-normal temperatures, with high confidence due to warming trends and warmer Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Mild days will favor leaf-peeping. The Old Farmer’s Almanac warns of cooler conditions by late October-November, potentially speeding up foliage changes.
- East Coast and Southeast: 33-40% chance of above-normal temperatures from the Mid-Atlantic to Florida. Expect extended “second summer” vibes, as noted in AccuWeather’s fall forecasts, with mild nights ideal for outdoor events. The Almanac predicts a hot September in the Southeast.
- South and Deep South: Above-normal temperatures likely (33-40% chance) in Texas, Oklahoma, and beyond, per NOAA’s outlook. The Almanac forecasts warmer-than-normal conditions, potentially extending heat.
- Southwest and Desert Southwest: 40-50% chance of above-normal temperatures in Arizona, New Mexico, southern California, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado. Drier warmth may heighten drought risks, per The Old Farmer’s Almanac.
- Great Basin, Central Rockies, and Southern High Plains: Over 50% chance of above-normal temperatures, driven by trends. Models show a warm belt, ideal for fall hiking, but stressing water resources.
- Pacific Northwest: Equal chances (EC) of above- or below-normal temperatures, with uncertainty from weakening trends and La Niña effects. The Almanac predicts warmer early fall, cooling by November.
- Northern Plains and Upper Midwest: EC for temperatures, with models showing weak signals. The Almanac forecasts chilly conditions in October and November, per its regional outlook.
- Midwest and Great Lakes: Above-normal temperatures in parts, but EC in northern areas. The 2025 fall weather prediction suggests a mild fall, with early chills possible per the Almanac.
- Alaska: Above-normal temperatures for the northern two-thirds, near-normal on the eastern North Slope due to sea ice, per NOAA. The southern third has lower confidence, potentially cooler. The Almanac predicts warmer and drier overall.
What This Means
Widespread warmth could delay fall colors in the East and extend wildfire seasons in the West. Cooler pockets in the North Central U.S. may bring early frost. Monitor shifts, as La Niña could introduce cooler air by late fall.
Related Post: NOAA Issues Official Winter Weather 2025 / 2026 Prediction
NOAA Seasonal Precipitation Outlook for Fall 2025
NOAA’s Seasonal Precipitation Outlook predicts above-normal precipitation along the East Coast to the Ohio Valley, tied to an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. Below-normal precipitation is favored in the west-central U.S. This matches severe-weather.eu’s drier south and wetter north patterns, with La Niña amplifying southern dryness. The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts drier-than-average conditions for much of the U.S. Below is a chart illustrating precipitation probabilities by region.
- East Coast and Southeast: 33-40% chance of above-normal precipitation, extending to the Ohio Valley. Wetter conditions could boost hurricane risks, leading to stormy fall in Florida and the Deep South, per the Almanac’s forecast.
- South and Southwest: Below-normal precipitation (33-40% chance) in southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, and parts of Texas/Colorado. Drier trends may worsen drought, per NOAA’s drought monitor.
- Northern Plains, Rockies, and Great Basin: 40-50% chance of below-normal precipitation, consistent with dry signals in models.
- Pacific Northwest: EC early, tilting toward above-normal by late fall (OND) under La Niña. The Almanac predicts drier-than-normal overall.
- Midwest and Great Lakes: Above-normal in the Ohio Valley, with wetter risks in the Lower Lakes and Upper Midwest, per the Almanac.
- Alaska: Slight tilt toward above-normal on the Mainland, increasing later. The Almanac forecasts drier-than-normal.
Planning Tips
Wetter East Coast conditions could enhance fall foliage but raise flood risks. Drier West may require water conservation. Target the Northeast for vibrant colors or the Southwest for mild hikes.
How to Stay Ahead of the Weather for Fall
Weather patterns can shift, so:
- Check NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center for monthly updates.
- Follow The Old Farmer’s Almanac or AccuWeather for refinements.
- Use apps like Weather Underground for real-time tropical storm or frost alerts.
- Plan flexibly with travel insurance for events or trips.
Fall 2025 promises warmth and varied precipitation, perfect for enjoying the season’s beauty. What’s your favorite fall activity? Share below!
Note: This outlook is based on NOAA’s July 17, 2025, forecasts and external sources. Check NOAA’s updates after August 21, 2025, for the latest on the 2025 Fall Weather Prediction.
