Winter 2025/26 Weather Outlook: What You Need to Know for the Upcoming Season

As summer heats up and we approach August, planning for the winter might not be top of mind. However, for those eager to see snow, it’s never too early to start thinking about 2026 winter weather prediction specifics like snow conditions, temperature forecasts, and resort preparations. While predicting exact weather for December, January, and February is nearly impossible this far out, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides valuable seasonal outlooks that give skiers and snowboarders a glimpse into what the 2025/26 winter might hold. Such insights are crucial for anyone interested in the 2026 winter weather prediction. Let’s dive into NOAA’s latest forecasts to help you plan your ski trips and get excited for powder days!

Why Seasonal Weather Outlooks Matter for Skiers

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center releases three-month seasonal outlooks up to a year in advance, offering insights into temperature and precipitation trends. These forecasts, while subject to change, are critical for ski resorts, travel planners, and winter sports enthusiasts looking to book trips to top destinations like Aspen, Vail, or Lake Tahoe. By understanding whether warmer or cooler temperatures and wetter or drier conditions are likely, you can make informed decisions about where to ski and when to book. Seasonal forecasts like these form the backbone of the 2026 winter weather prediction, helping enthusiasts prepare in advance.

Below, we break down NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks for December, January, and February 2025/26, issued on July 17, 2025. These forecasts provide a broad picture of what to expect across the U.S., particularly for popular ski regions. This analysis directly ties into the 2026 winter weather prediction, which benefits from understanding these previews.

NOAA Seasonal Temperature Outlook for Winter 2025/26

NOAA Seasonal Temperature Outlook for December, January, and February. Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

According to NOAA’s latest Seasonal Temperature Outlook, much of the U.S. is leaning toward a milder winter. Here’s what skiers can expect:

East Coast, South, and Southwest: A 33-40% chance of above-normal temperatures is forecast for these regions. Popular ski destinations, such as Killington in Vermont and Snowshoe in West Virginia, may experience warmer-than-average conditions, potentially impacting early-season snowpack. Resorts with robust snowmaking systems will be key for consistent skiing.
Maine, Florida, Arizona, and Parts of California, Nevada, Utah, and New Mexico face a 40-50% chance of above-normal temperatures. For Western ski hubs like Mammoth Mountain in California or Snowbird in Utah, this could mean more rain than snow at lower elevations. However, higher-altitude resorts may still offer excellent conditions.
Pacific Northwest (Western Washington and Northwest Oregon): The only region with a 33-40% chance of below-normal temperatures is the western half of Washington and the northwest tip of Oregon. Resorts like Mount Baker and Crystal Mountain could experience colder-than-average conditions, potentially resulting in a deeper snowpack and prime skiing opportunities.
Rest of the Lower 48: Most other areas, including central ski states such as Colorado and Montana, have equal chances of experiencing above- or below-normal temperatures. Resorts like Breckenridge and Big Sky will need to monitor updates closer to the season for clarity. All these factors together create a comprehensive 2026 winter weather prediction for skiers nationwide.

Weather Weather Forecast: 2025 / 2026 Winter Storms

What This Means for Skiers

Warmer temperatures in the East and Southwest could challenge early-season snow conditions, so consider booking trips to resorts with higher elevations or strong snowmaking capabilities. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest’s cooler outlook is promising for those chasing deep powder. Stay flexible and keep an eye on updated forecasts as winter approaches.

NOAA Seasonal Precipitation Outlook for Winter 2025/26

NOAA Seasonal Precipitation Outlook for December, January, and February. Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Southern U.S. (Parts of California, Northern Arizona, New Mexico, Southern Nevada, Utah, and Colorado): A 33-40% chance of below-normal precipitation could mean drier conditions for resorts like Heavenly in California or Purgatory in Colorado. Skiers may want to prioritize resorts with reliable snowmaking or higher elevations.
Southern California, Arizona, Southwest New Mexico, Florida, and Southern East Coast: These areas face a 40-50% chance of below-normal precipitation, potentially leading to thinner snowpack. Resorts like Bear Mountain in Southern California may rely heavily on artificial snow.
Central Montana, Northern Wyoming, and Eastern Idaho: A 40-50% chance of above-normal precipitation in central Montana, with a 33-40% chance extending to northern Wyoming and eastern Idaho, bodes well for resorts like Whitefish Mountain and Grand Targhee. Expect potentially heavy snowfall and excellent powder days.
Midwest and Great Lakes (Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky): A 33-40% chance of above-normal precipitation could bring wetter conditions to regional ski areas like Boyne Mountain in Michigan. However, warmer temperatures might result in more rain than snow at lower elevations.

Precipitation is the lifeblood of a great ski season, and NOAA’s Seasonal Precipitation Outlook highlights where snow (or rain) is most likely. Here’s the breakdown:

Planning Your Ski Trip

Skiers targeting Montana, Wyoming, or Idaho should be optimistic about snowfall, making these regions prime destinations for powder hounds. Conversely, those planning trips to Southern California or the Southwest should research resorts with strong snowmaking infrastructure or consider timing visits later in the season when snowpack may improve.

How to Stay Ahead of the Weather for Ski Season

While NOAA’s outlooks provide a solid starting point, weather patterns can shift. To stay informed:

Monitor Updates: Check NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center for monthly updates to the seasonal outlook.
Follow Resort Snow Reports: Websites like OnTheSnow and Snow-Forecast offer real-time snow conditions and forecasts for resorts worldwide.
Book Flexibly: Choose resorts with flexible cancellation policies or consider ski travel insurance to protect against unpredictable weather.
Consider Elevation: Higher-altitude resorts, like Arapahoe Basin in Colorado or Jackson Hole in Wyoming, are often more resilient to warmer or drier conditions.

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Get Ready for an Epic Ski Season

The 2025/26 ski season is shaping up to be an exciting one, with varied conditions across the U.S. Whether you’re dreaming of carving fresh powder in Montana or enjoying sunny slopes in California, NOAA’s seasonal outlooks offer valuable insights to guide your planning. Stay tuned for updates, and start gearing up for an unforgettable winter on the slopes!

What’s your favorite ski destination? Share your plans in the comments below, and let us know how you’re preparing for the 2025/26 season!

The Seasonal Temperature Outlook for December, January, and February (issued on July 17, 2025) predicts above-normal temperatures for much of the East Coast, South, and Southwest, with a 33-40% chance. Maine, Florida, Arizona, and portions of California, Nevada, Utah, and New Mexico have a 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures.

In the lower 48 states, only the western half of Washington and the very northwest tip of Oregon have a 33-40% chance of experiencing below-normal temperatures. The rest of the lower 48 states have an equal chance of encountering either below- or above-normal temperatures.

The Seasonal Precipitation Outlook for this upcoming December, January, and February (issued on July 17th, 2025) brings a 33-40% chance of below normal precipitation to several portions of the southern United States, including a portion of California, northern Arizona and New Mexico, and southern Nevada, Utah, and Colorado. Southern California, Arizona, and southwest New Mexico, as well as much of Florida and the southern East Coast, have a 40-50% chance of experiencing below-normal precipitation.

Central Montana is looking at a 40-50% chance of above normal precipitation while most of the rest of the state, northern Wyoming, and eastern Idaho have a 33-40% chance of above normal precipitation. Indiana and parts of Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, and a few other states in the area also have a 33-40% chance of above-normal precipitation.