Thanksgiving snowstorm
A prolonged Arctic air pattern is set to bring weeks of frigid temperatures and multiple snow events across the U.S., starting with a Thanksgiving snowstorm impacting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Lake-effect snowfall will dominate the Great Lakes region through early December, with accumulations reaching 2-5 feet in some areas. A positive Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern sustains the cold, driven by a neutral ENSO phase. Weather models, including GFS and European, align on a snowy, brutally cold outlook, with potential additional storms in mid-December.
Arctic Air and Prolonged Cold Pattern
Models Expect Record Breaking Cold... Monster Snowstorm
- Severe Arctic air is moving in, potentially lasting for weeks with very cold temperatures.
- Multiple snow chances, starting Thanksgiving into Black Friday.
Snowfall Outlook
- Tuesday, Nov 26th: Mountainous snow in the Sierra Nevada and Southern Rockies due to a southern flow pattern.
- Wednesday, Nov 27th: Low pressure forms over Southern Plains, leading to potential snowstorm in Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
- Thursday, Nov 28th (Thanksgiving): Snow impacts northern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and southern New York/New England.
- Friday, Nov 29th – Dec 3rd: Prolonged lake-effect snowfall with heavy accumulation over Great Lakes region.
Cold Weather Breakdown
- Arctic air pushes eastward starting Wednesday, Nov 27th, and deepens through the weekend.
- Temperatures:
- Greens: 10-15°F below normal.
- Blues: 1-10°F below normal.
- Purples: 15-25°F below normal.
- Magentas: Over 25°F below normal (Montana/North Dakota).
Extended Snowfall and Cold Trends
- Early December: Persistent cold air dominates eastern U.S. with continued lake-effect snow.
- Snowstorms predicted to intensify in Northeast and Midwest.
- Additional snow chances for Plains, Rockies, and Midwest later in December.
Model Comparisons
- GFS vs. European Model:
- GFS historically places storms too far southeast; European model has been more accurate for this system.
- Models suggest continued cold and snowy conditions into mid-December.
Impactful Weather Patterns
- Positive Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern sustains Arctic air over the East and a ridge over the West.
- Neutral ENSO phase favors cold and snowy conditions, contrasting with La Niña expectations.
Key Snowfall Areas
- Great Lakes Region: Lake-effect snow to bring 2-5 feet in some areas.
- Mid-Atlantic and Northeast: Moderate to heavy snow likely, especially in higher elevations.
- Southern Rockies: Above-average snowfall expected.
Viewer Engagement
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- Emphasis on consistent forecasts as models remain stable.