Forecast, outlooks, predictions, everyone wants to know who is going to get snow this upcoming winter. To help in our projections, the National Weather Service has just released their long range forecast for the winter of 2024 – 2025.
The good government scientists are predicting that the upcoming winter will be ENSO-neutral conditions meaning the winter will not be strongly affected by La Niña conditions or El Nino conditions. As you can see in the precipitation forecast maps below, this would mean that, in general, the mountains and ski areas in the Pacific Northwest of the United States will see more favorable ski conditions than ski areas to the south. Outside of that, most of the ski regions will see an equal change of of snowy or dry conditions.
ENSO Update and Seasonal Outlook
- ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present, with a La Niña watch in effect for July-September (65% chance) and likely persistence into winter 2024-25 (85% chance).
- Temperature Outlook (JAS 2024):
- Above normal temperatures favored for most of the contiguous US, with highest probabilities (70-80%) in the Four Corners region.
- Below normal temperatures expected in southwestern Alaska, transitioning to above normal in northeastern Alaska.
- Precipitation Outlook (JAS 2024):
- Below normal precipitation favored in western and central US, with equal chances over the West Coast.
- Above normal precipitation expected in southeastern Texas, Gulf States, and Eastern Seaboard, with highest probabilities (50-60%) along the Gulf Coast and Florida.
- La Niña impacts drive the forecast, with typical La Niña effects expected in temperature and precipitation patterns.
- Decadal trends and statistical guidance also considered in the outlooks.
Reading the Winter Weather Forecast Long-range Map From NOAA
The maps display the probability (%) of three categories: above (A), below (B), and middle (N). The probabilities add up to 100% at every point. The categories are defined by the 30-year historical data from 1981-2010, with the coldest/driest 1/3 as B, warmest/wettest 1/3 as A, and the remaining years as N.
Forecasters assign probabilities exceeding 33.33% to the most likely category, labeling it on the map. When A or B is favored, the middle category probability remains at 33.33%. If the favored category reaches 70% or higher, the opposite category is fixed at 3.3%, and the middle category is adjusted to total 100%. If the middle category exceeds 33.33%, the A and B probabilities decline equally to total 100%. Regions with no forecast bias are labeled “EC” (equal chances) with 33.33% for A and B.
2025 Winter Temperature Outlook
2025 Winter Precipitation Outlook
