Forecasts, outlooks, predictions, everyone wants to know who is going to get snow this upcoming winter. To help in our projections, the National Weather Service has just released its long-range forecast for the winter of 2023 – 2024.
This year marks the return of El Nino as it heads into winter, breaking a four-year absence. According to NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, this event is set to influence weather patterns. It suggests that the northern regions of the continental United States can expect warmer-than-average temperatures. These outlooks are invaluable for a range of industries, from energy and commodities to agriculture and tourism. With El Nino strengthening and the possibility of more climate extremes in a record-breaking year, the Climate Prediction Center plays a pivotal role in building a Weather and Climate-Ready Nation by providing essential seasonal climate predictions.
During the December to February period, NOAA’s predictions indicate wetter-than-average conditions for northern Alaska, parts of the West, the southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast, and lower mid-Atlantic. Conversely, drier-than-average conditions are anticipated across the northern tier of the U.S., particularly in the northern Rockies, High Plains, and near the Great Lakes.
Chief of the Operational Prediction Branch at the Climate Prediction Center, Jon Gottschalck, says that a strong El Nino usually brings an enhanced southern jet stream and the moisture that goes with it. This means that the Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast states are likely to get more rain than usual this winter.
NOAA, in partnership with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), continues to closely monitor persistent severe drought conditions in the southern and central U.S., as well as a worsening drought situation in Hawaii. According to Brad Pugh, operational drought lead at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, as of October 17th, a third of the country, including Puerto Rico, is grappling with drought. However, late October is expected to bring heavy precipitation that may lead to drought improvement in the central U.S. Furthermore, El Nino, with its potential for enhanced precipitation, is anticipated to offer relief to the southern U.S. in the coming months.
December, January, and February 2023
Temperature Forecast: Winter 2023 – 2024
Temperature
- Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the northern tier of the U.S. and much of the Far West.
- The greatest odds for warmer-than-average conditions are in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest and northern New England.
- Near-normal seasonal mean temperatures are most likely for a region from the south-central Rockies to the southern Plains.
- Remaining areas fall into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal mean temperatures.
Precipitation Forecast: Winter 2023 – 2024
Precipitation
- Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in northern Alaska, some areas of the West from parts of California to the south-central Rockies, the southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic.
- The greatest odds for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of the northern Rockies and central Great Lakes region, especially for Michigan and northern Ohio and Indiana.
- Much of the central portion of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal total precipitation.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is a vital U.S. government agency dedicated to understanding and managing our planet’s oceans and atmosphere. Founded in 1970, NOAA plays a pivotal role in weather forecasting, climate research, marine conservation, and the exploration of Earth’s deep-sea mysteries. It operates a vast network of satellites, research vessels, and monitoring stations to gather data and provide critical information to protect lives and ecosystems. It also uses this vast network to create weather models that help predict season of snowfall temperatures.