NEWS9 reports scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) are watching the sun for something they call the “Terminator.” It’s an event that signals the end of a solar cycle. The sun is currently at the bottom of its roughly 11-year-long energy cycle, a point called solar minimum and is expected switch back into an active phase sometime in the next 9 months, kicking off the next solar cycle. The exact moment of transition may be visible in a signal called a terminator:
“We’ll actually see the progression of this terminator event as it ripples around the circumference of the sun. The terminator event is really the signature, the flipping of the switch.” –Scott McIntosh, director of NCAR’s High Altitude Observatory
The terminator will be back soon.*
Within the year, NCAR scientist expect another terminator on the Sun, an event that they say definitively marks the end of one sunspot cycle (in this case, 24) and the start of the next (25).
* Not THAT terminator. 😵 pic.twitter.com/PKmvbizQX2
— National Center for Atmospheric Research (@NCAR_Science) July 24, 2019
The sun will then start creating lots of sunspots, something there have been very little of, if any, in the 12 months leading up to the terminator event:
“Years in which sun spot production are very low typically produce very erratic weather.”
Erratic refers mainly to ocean oscillations and jet stream behavior. This could produce unpredictable weather with extremely warm and dry periods, followed closely by extreme cold and wet periods.
Current (SOLAR MINIMUM) Geomagnetic index is indicating sunspot cycle 25 magnitude equivalent to sunspot cycle 20/23 [BLUE BOX – YELLOW will update at #Terminator2020]. In other words, an average magnitude cycle. #WhyAA #HowDoesThatWork #SolarCycle25 pic.twitter.com/ijYawjnJsC
— Scott McIntosh (@swmcintosh) September 9, 2019
The Farmer’s Almanac winter forecast is one of the few long-term weather outlooks that uses solar activity in their equation. The byline for this year’s edition is“Ride the Polar Coaster” and could influenced by the erratic weather caused by sunspots. There was also low sunspot activity last winter, but that forecast was easier to predict due to the presence of an El Nino, which is not expected to form this winter.
LEARN MORE ABOUT TERMINATORS HERE