We are excited to announce a new partnership with OpenSnow. Each Monday we will be bringing you one of there daily forecasts. In turn you will be able to find some of our Unofficial content on their site. For our first forecast we bring you the latest Tahoe outlook from Bryan Allegretto.
THE TAHOE DAILY SNOW REPORT FROM OPENSNOW
A quick update this morning on the Wednesday storm and the weekend storm. For a more detailed discussion from yesterday you can click the “previous discussion” button below.
The cold storm for Tuesday night into Wednesday continues to lose moisture on the models the past 24 hours. This storm may bring more cold than snow after a couple weeks of mild weather. Light snow should break out Tuesday night with scattered snow showers into Wednesday and very cold air with highs in the 30’s.
Here’s is the updated total precip forecast from the GFS, and my updated snowfall forecast averaging the GFS and European forecast models.
The winds will be gusty as the storm moves in but only peaking out on the mountains in the 50 mph range.
Cold nights behind the storm will allow for snowmaking. We will have a break in the action through Saturday with highs in the 30’s on the mountains and 40’s at lake level Friday and Saturday.
The next storm is spinning off the coast by Saturday. The GFS and European models are coming into slightly better agreement that the storm will push moisture into the area by Saturday night. Snow levels look to be around 7000 feet. The front is almost stalled into Sunday with a Southerly flow and not much push of precip into the Tahoe basin.
The forecast models begin to diverge Sunday into Sunday night. The GFS pulls in heavier precip as seen above, while the European model splits the storm and sends most of the moisture South into Southern CA. Neither scenario brings much in the way of snowfall, except maybe West of the basin up along the Sierra Crest with the GFS scenario, but the moisture stays West of the lake.
Here is the GFS total precip forecast by Monday.
We will keep watching to see if the storm will split or hold together, and how much snow can push into the Tahoe basin. The map above would bring several inches of snow to the crest and ski resorts on the West side of the lake Saturday night through Sunday night.
With the splitting storm Sunday the European model then brings a break in the action until the next storm Tuesday night into Wednesday. The GFS which holds the first storm together drops another wave into CA Monday before the next storm on Wednesday. So we will watch to see if we get a break or not Monday and Tuesday.
The forecast models are in somewhat agreement on a cold storm for next Wednesday but this is more than a week out. They differ from a weak storm on the Euro to a moderate storm on the GFS.
The pattern looks like it could remain active with more storms through the end of the month.
So for now we have plenty of storms to watch the next 2 weeks. None of them show the potential for big snows yet. But if we can get several storms to bring inches of snow with snowmaking in between that could start to add up.
Stay tuned…BA