As “Miracle March” gives way to April, many are wondering if El Niño conditions will persist through spring. According to NOAA, El Niño conditions will continue across much of the western United States through April as El Niño transitions into a neutral state in the coming months.
Related: Mary Jane Will Extend Season Into May
In the meantime, the front range of Colorado looks to benefit the most from significant April snow showers and this year could be somewhat reminiscent of last year’s spring that saw pow days at Araphoe Basin and Winter Park through May.
April’s Forecasted Winners: California, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Colorado, Wyoming, and New Mexico
April’s Forecasted Losers: Oregon, Washington, BC, and Montana
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APRIL 2016
THE APRIL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WERE PREPARED WITH CONSIDERATIONS FROM ONGOING STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS, CURRENT MJO ACTIVITY, MOST RECENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AS WELL AS AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INTEGRATED OVER MULTIPLE TIME PERIODS.
STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN WHILE THE MJO CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE WITH THE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE PHASE NOW CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN AND PROPAGATING EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE MJO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS AND
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MARITIME CONTINENT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BY APRIL. THE MJO WILL FIRST DESTRUCTIVELY, THEN CONSTRUCTIVELY INTERFERE WITH THE EL NINO BASE STATE OVER THIS PERIOD AND THERE IS LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN THE PATTERN OF ANOMALOUS TROPICAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MARITIME CONTINENT AND WESTERN PACIFIC DURING THIS PERIOD. BY APRIL, THERE MAY EMERGE A COUPLET OF EQUATORIAL SUPPRESSED/ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE MARITIME CONTINENT AND WESTERN PACIFIC THAT CAN BE CONSIDERED FOR POTENTIAL TELECONNECTION TO THE HIGHER LATITUDES DURING EARLY APRIL.
ABOVE AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT IN MID-MARCH FOR A REGION FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHEASTWARD TO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE APRIL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA, THE WESTERN CONUS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. AREAS IN ALASKA, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ARE CONSISTENT WITH EL NINO CONDITIONS AND STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL. ABOVE AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN WATERS NEIGHBORING SOUTHERN
ALASKA AND THE WEST COAST ALSO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LACK OF EL NINO PRECIPITATION DURING THE WINTER MONTHS IN MANY OF THESE AREAS. LAGGED COMPOSITES WITH CURRENT MJO ACTIVITY SUPPORT POTENTIAL MEAN RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CONUS IN EARLY APRIL AND THIS ALONG WITH SOME DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT FAVORS A TILT IN THE ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA. WET SURFACE CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ON AVERAGE OVER THE PERIOD AND MODEST DYNAMICAL MODEL SUPPORT FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE APRIL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF WESTERN ALASKA. EL NINO
CONDITIONS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT AREAS ACROSS THE WEST, THE PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES. MJO CONSIDERATIONS ALSO SUPPORT A SLIGHT TILT IN
THE ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS IN THE OHIO VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE MONTH. FOR ALASKA, BELOW AVERAGE SEA ICE
COVERAGE AND CFS GUIDANCE SUPPORT ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND IS CONSISTENT WITH EL NINO CONDITIONS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.