The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration‘s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center issued its November 2025 outlook a few days ago, offering probabilistic forecasts for temperature and precipitation across the U.S.
November Temperature Outlook
The temperature forecast indicates above-normal conditions across much of the southern and western U.S., with the highest probabilities in central Texas, Oklahoma, and eastern New Mexico. Adjacent areas like Arizona, Kansas, and Louisiana also show elevated chances of warmer weather.
The Pacific Coast states, northern Plains, and Midwest have a moderate likelihood of above-normal temperatures. The Northeast, from New England to the Mid-Atlantic, and the northern Rockies fall into equal chances. In Alaska, western and southern coastal areas lean toward above-normal temperatures, while the interior and north show equal chances.
Precipitation Outlook
Precipitation is forecasted to be above normal in the Northwest, northern Rockies, and Upper Midwest, with the highest probabilities in the Dakotas and northern Wisconsin. The Southeast, including Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia, faces a high likelihood of below-normal precipitation. Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi share this dry trend, while New Mexico and western Texas also lean below normal.
A large equal chances zone covers the central U.S. from Iowa to Colorado. Alaska shows above-normal prospects in the west and below-normal in the southeast panhandle, with New Jersey indicating a chance of above-normal precipitation.
Key Takeaways
NOAA’s outlook suggests a warmer November in the South and Southwest, with wetter conditions in the Northwest and Upper Midwest, and drier prospects in the Southeast. Equal chances dominate the central U.S. and parts of the North. Monitor the Climate Prediction Center for updates.
