[Forecast courtesy of Powderchasers]
COAST TO COAST POWDER! 3-6 FEET for the Sierra, 1-2 Feet New England. Leftovers aimed at the Rockies.
Summary:
New England is about to get hammered with POWDAH with the heaviest amounts south and east. The California storm is strengthening and will blast most of the Sierra with 3-6 feet if not more between Tuesday and Saturday. The rest of the West is on the wildcard list with my eyes focussed on southern Colorado, central Idaho and most of the southern regions including Arizona by the weekend.
Short Term Forecast:
New England will see significant snowfall between Monday night and Tuesday evening.
A classic Nor Easter with significant moisture is going to hammer coastal areas with 2 feet of snow (Boston, Cape Cod, Rhode island, Rockingham County-NH, Coastal Maine). If your chasing from those areas you need to be in position at your resorts by Monday night. On Tuesday heavy snow will be moving up the coast creating decent storm skiing for New Hampshire (Conway) and areas east. Focus your chase on southern and eastern resorts. Sometimes Sunday River gets good wrap around so include them on your list. Gunstock may be a good bet being closer to the Coast. Models show 6-10 inches for these areas where any shift slightly west will increase amounts. Vermont gets decent spillover for all areas in central and southern zones (4-7). Storm ski Tuesday and reap higher rewards Wednesday/Thursday with lingering snowfall.
Additional snow will be falling in most areas under northerly flow increasing your odds of deep snow in central and northern areas of New England. It’s possible that Jay Peak or Stowe report some surprises on Wednesday or Thursday with good orographics (Moisture and upslope flow against the Green Mountains). Plan on chasing south and east Tuesday and look for surprise dumps further north on Wednesday/Thursday.
In California expect peak storm periods to be Tuesday night and again Thursday-Friday. Expect 12-15 inches Wednesday morning in most areas with a slight break noted Wednesday afternoon. Tuesday will feature strong winds and warmer temps. At some point after midnight the snow level noted below drops to around 5,000 feet. Below you can see the lighter green areas in the map. Mammoth will see that temperature drop slightly later, but certainly before daybreak. This will improve density on top of the cement that falls on Tuesday. Snow will be decreasing somewhat over north lake Tahoe by mid morning Wednesday. Mammoth will continue to see moderate or heavy snow through early PM Wednesday.
Snow returns to The Sierra in full force late Wednesday night through Friday (Steady snowfall). All areas of the Sierra will grab an additional 3-4 feet with higher amounts possible at the summits. Here is a look at the total snowfall through Saturday morning over the entire Sierra Range. 30-60 inches are not out of the question through Friday with higher amounts possible at the peaks.
Aim to storm ski Thursday/Friday and get your head above the snow by Saturday. You won’t go wrong at any resort you pick. Don’t expect upper terrain to be open until perhaps the weekend at many areas with extended avalanche mitigation. Winds may peak Tuesday and again Thursday morning before decreasing on Friday. A brief break Wednesday may allow upper mountain to open at some resorts surrounding Lake Tahoe. You may not see upper mountain at Mammoth open until the weekend.
Rest of The West:
Aim for central or southern Idaho where some moderate or heavier amounts of snowfall are possible Wednesday into Thursday (5-10). I am bullish for the Sawtooth’s near Hailey that might push some moderate amounts south into Sun Valley. Areas north towards Brundage are on the wildcard list (Moisture is just south of the ski area). The Cascades of Washington may also score 5-9 inches by late Wednesday. The models for the Wasatch show light or moderate snowfall possible by late Wednesday and possibly higher amounts north towards the Idaho border. Other points to consider are southern Colorado for midweek where moderate snowfall is likely late Wednesday into Thursday (4-9). Wolf Creek may score some pow during this period. Additional snow moves into the southern and central Rockies in the extended forecast.
Extended Forecast:
The extended forecast is going to feature continued snowfall for the Sierra (Mentioned above) Thursday/Friday. Significant moisture will drive south and loop over Arizona by the end of the week. Significant rain and high elevation snow (Wildcard at Arizona Snowbowl) will drive over the 4 corners late in the week. Southern and central Colorado may score some decent pow as well as areas of central Utah (Northern areas of Utah can sometimes sneak out some good leftovers) by Sunday. The southern Rockies stay active through next Monday. It’s possible that the Front Range mountains closer to Denver grab a decent storm late Sunday or early Monday (Day 7-8 in the forecast period). Moisture will also be streaming north into central and northern Utah (Wildcard list).
-Powderchaser Steve
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