Report From Powderchasers
Summary. 1/18/18- AM REPORT
Nearly every ski area in the west grabs the white stuff through the weekend with chases from the Cascades today through to the Sierra on Friday. The Tetons get a tease of 5-9 inches split between late tonight and early Friday with the Wasatch a strong contender through Saturday. Colorado and New Mexico get all the leftovers this weekend.
Short Term Forecast
Snow is falling over the Cascades currently. Warm air as of 3AM this morning has kept amounts to just 5 inches at Stevens and less elsewhere. The HRR models show an increase of snow this morning with colder air especially over the Oregon Cascades. It’s possible that Stevens, and Crystal add another 2-5 inches today with Baker adding higher amounts by last chair today. Cold air is just entering the Washington Cascades so enhancement is likely. I am not confident we will hit double digits by last chair but it’s possible between Stevens and Baker. Snow showers continue into Friday (Light) and may increase overnight into Saturday morning with a weak convergence zone (West winds) forming moderate snow bands. (Its possible that Saturday morning features a sneak up 5-8 inch powder day). The Panhandle of Idaho especially central regions near Lookout Pass should log moderate to heavy snow today through Friday morning. Brundage may deserve watching for 1st chairs on Friday. Sun Valley sits into the skunk hole with light snow (Heavier snow towards the northern Sawtooths).
The northern Sierra is still on tap for a decent storm tonight into Friday. My original forecast was between 15-20 inches at the summits with NOAA currently in the 1-2 foot range. Models are downtrending amounts. I’m going with 10-15 inches for the Sierra Crest (Squaw, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood) and 7-10 inches elsewhere. Base areas will see generally 4-9 inches. Cold air will finally get some snow at lake level. The southern Sierra may see slightly lower amounts (Mammoth) at mid mountain with upper elevations possibly coming in higher. I think Kirkwood, and areas north are a safer bet however upper terrain at Mammoth (Good snowpack) and even 8-10 inches of new snow mid mountain would put them in good position. The upper elevations of Mammoth should exceed a foot by Saturday morning.
Image: Total snowfall for the Sierra Thursday PM through Saturday.
The Tetons who continue to tease 5-10 inches (Several events in the past few weeks) should repeat tonight into Friday. Most snow will fall from midnight tonight through 11 AM Friday. Its a powder split of 4-6 inches by 6AM and and another 2-5 during the morning Friday. Double digits may be squeezed out by the time the lifts close Friday over JHMR with slightly lower amounts at Targhee (SW wind direction). It’s going to start out warm and finish cold (Wet snow tonight followed by a frosting of dry density Friday). Rain may mix in the Valleys tonight before light snow impacts the roads on Friday morning. Chase 4.5 hours to the Wasatch for powder on Saturday!
The Wasatch range will grab much needed snowfall primarily late Friday into Saturday night. Amounts above 8,000 feet will range from 5-10 inches (Northern and southern Wasatch). Park City will be within that range at upper elevations by late Saturday. The Cottonwoods south of the Great Salt Lake may earn higher amounts (9-15) with orographic snow showers continuing into Sunday morning (NW flow). Best ride times for powder will be first chair Saturday (Snow continues during the day). Very warm temps today, and strong winds will be replaced early Saturday morning with a cold front with and a quick uptick or moisture (Roadways will be snow packed over most of northern Utah late Friday night or Saturday morning). Some snow Friday night will be falling at several inches per hour with the passage of the cold front.
Image: University of Utah – Canyons (PCMR) that is favored with NW flow. The average line is showing near 10 inches (Saturday afternoon). Subtract 20% on the average and notice the tightly nit lines below showing me confidence for 8-10 inches through Saturday Noon. Park City (PCMR resort) will see lower amounts due to aspects liking SW or S flow.
Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico all grab powder this weekend. Most snow will fall with the cold front that moves into the region Saturday/Sunday. Snow will be falling in the San Juans by Saturday morning (Early snow report may only show a few inches) and increase during the daylight hours. I am bullish for 4-8 inches towards Wolf Creek by late Saturday night. Winds start out from the SW (Good for the San Juans) and switch to the NW by late morning or early afternoon Saturday. Telluride can see an uptick of moisture as the winds shift to the NW.
Snow will pick up over the I-70 corridor by afternoon Saturday. Models are not that exciting showing 4-6 inches for most mountain locations through Sunday morning. Winds shift to the North late Saturday enhancing snow for areas north of I-70 (Winter Park, Berthoud Pass). I would venture to guess that the summit of Vail or Breckenridge nab higher amounts by Sunday morning. I am also a bit more bullish for Steamboat on Saturday afternoon who often scores with NW flow and cold fronts. On Sunday areas north of I-70 as mentioned above may deserve watching as winds will switch from to the north. Ride Saturday in the San Juans, and head north for late Saturday and early Sunday. It’s not a big system but cold air orographics may kick in especially for Steamboat, Vail or Breckenridge late Saturday or early Sunday. I am also a bit bullish for Rocky Mountain National Park and perhaps Winter Park for Sunday.
Image: University of Utah- Vail Pass showing only 2 inches on Sat afternoon with up to 6 inches ore more on Sunday morning.
in New Mexico Taos should sneak out some light or moderate snow by Sunday morning. Arizona Snowbowl also logs a tease Friday night/Saturday.
Extended Forecast
Additional moderate snow is likely for the Cascades late this weekend into Monday. Expect storm skiing late Sunday into Monday (Oregon is favored) with another 5-10 inches of snow (Good quality). That system takes a southern split moving over the Sierra that has weakened with each model run. I don’t see it being chase worthy (4-7 inches). The northern split may land higher amounts over the Panhandle of Idaho before weakening and zipping over southern Montana and the Tetons on Monday (light or moderate snow).
By Thursday another storm should land moderate amounts for the Sierra before headed east over the central Rockies. This storm may be decent for California before weakening somewhat as it heads east over the Wasatch late week.
Powderchaser Steve
Summary. 1/18/18- AM REPORT
Nearly every ski area in the west grabs the white stuff through the weekend with chases from the Cascades today through to the Sierra on Friday. The Tetons get a tease of 5-9 inches split between late tonight and early Friday with the Wasatch a strong contender through Saturday. Colorado and New Mexico get all the leftovers this weekend.
Short Term Forecast
Snow is falling over the Cascades currently. Warm air as of 3AM this morning has kept amounts to just 5 inches at Stevens and less elsewhere. The HRR models show an increase of snow this morning with colder air especially over the Oregon Cascades. It’s possible that Stevens, and Crystal add another 2-5 inches today with Baker adding higher amounts by last chair today. Cold air is just entering the Washington Cascades so enhancement is likely. I am not confident we will hit double digits by last chair but it’s possible between Stevens and Baker. Snow showers continue into Friday (Light) and may increase overnight into Saturday morning with a weak convergence zone (West winds) forming moderate snow bands. (Its possible that Saturday morning features a sneak up 5-8 inch powder day). The Panhandle of Idaho especially central regions near Lookout Pass should log moderate to heavy snow today through Friday morning. Brundage may deserve watching for 1st chairs on Friday. Sun Valley sits into the skunk hole with light snow (Heavier snow towards the northern Sawtooths).
The northern Sierra is still on tap for a decent storm tonight into Friday. My original forecast was between 15-20 inches at the summits with NOAA currently in the 1-2 foot range. Models are downtrending amounts. I’m going with 10-15 inches for the Sierra Crest (Squaw, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood) and 7-10 inches elsewhere. Base areas will see generally 4-9 inches. Cold air will finally get some snow at lake level. The southern Sierra may see slightly lower amounts (Mammoth) at mid mountain with upper elevations possibly coming in higher. I think Kirkwood, and areas north are a safer bet however upper terrain at Mammoth (Good snowpack) and even 8-10 inches of new snow mid mountain would put them in good position. The upper elevations of Mammoth should exceed a foot by Saturday morning.
Image: Total snowfall for the Sierra Thursday PM through Saturday.
The Tetons who continue to tease 5-10 inches (Several events in the past few weeks) should repeat tonight into Friday. Most snow will fall from midnight tonight through 11 AM Friday. Its a powder split of 4-6 inches by 6AM and and another 2-5 during the morning Friday. Double digits may be squeezed out by the time the lifts close Friday over JHMR with slightly lower amounts at Targhee (SW wind direction). It’s going to start out warm and finish cold (Wet snow tonight followed by a frosting of dry density Friday). Rain may mix in the Valleys tonight before light snow impacts the roads on Friday morning. Chase 4.5 hours to the Wasatch for powder on Saturday!
The Wasatch range will grab much needed snowfall primarily late Friday into Saturday night. Amounts above 8,000 feet will range from 5-10 inches (Northern and southern Wasatch). Park City will be within that range at upper elevations by late Saturday. The Cottonwoods south of the Great Salt Lake may earn higher amounts (9-15) with orographic snow showers continuing into Sunday morning (NW flow). Best ride times for powder will be first chair Saturday (Snow continues during the day). Very warm temps today, and strong winds will be replaced early Saturday morning with a cold front with and a quick uptick or moisture (Roadways will be snow packed over most of northern Utah late Friday night or Saturday morning). Some snow Friday night will be falling at several inches per hour with the passage of the cold front.
Image: University of Utah – Canyons (PCMR) that is favored with NW flow. The average line is showing near 10 inches (Saturday afternoon). Subtract 20% on the average and notice the tightly nit lines below showing me confidence for 8-10 inches through Saturday Noon. Park City (PCMR resort) will see lower amounts due to aspects liking SW or S flow.
Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico all grab powder this weekend. Most snow will fall with the cold front that moves into the region Saturday/Sunday. Snow will be falling in the San Juans by Saturday morning (Early snow report may only show a few inches) and increase during the daylight hours. I am bullish for 4-8 inches towards Wolf Creek by late Saturday night. Winds start out from the SW (Good for the San Juans) and switch to the NW by late morning or early afternoon Saturday. Telluride can see an uptick of moisture as the winds shift to the NW.
Snow will pick up over the I-70 corridor by afternoon Saturday. Models are not that exciting showing 4-6 inches for most mountain locations through Sunday morning. Winds shift to the North late Saturday enhancing snow for areas north of I-70 (Winter Park, Berthoud Pass). I would venture to guess that the summit of Vail or Breckenridge nab higher amounts by Sunday morning. I am also a bit more bullish for Steamboat on Saturday afternoon who often scores with NW flow and cold fronts. On Sunday areas north of I-70 as mentioned above may deserve watching as winds will switch from to the north. Ride Saturday in the San Juans, and head north for late Saturday and early Sunday. It’s not a big system but cold air orographics may kick in especially for Steamboat, Vail or Breckenridge late Saturday or early Sunday. I am also a bit bullish for Rocky Mountain National Park and perhaps Winter Park for Sunday.
Image: University of Utah- Vail Pass showing only 2 inches on Sat afternoon with up to 6 inches ore more on Sunday morning.
in New Mexico Taos should sneak out some light or moderate snow by Sunday morning. Arizona Snowbowl also logs a tease Friday night/Saturday.
Extended Forecast
Additional moderate snow is likely for the Cascades late this weekend into Monday. Expect storm skiing late Sunday into Monday (Oregon is favored) with another 5-10 inches of snow (Good quality). That system takes a southern split moving over the Sierra that has weakened with each model run. I don’t see it being chase worthy (4-7 inches). The northern split may land higher amounts over the Panhandle of Idaho before weakening and zipping over southern Montana and the Tetons on Monday (light or moderate snow).
By Thursday another storm should land moderate amounts for the Sierra before headed east over the central Rockies. This storm may be decent for California before weakening somewhat as it heads east over the Wasatch late week.
Powderchaser Steve
