Powerful Nor’easter Coming Together
A massive winter storm is coming together as two low pressure systems are merging over the U.S. East Coast. A satellite image from NOAA’s GOES-13 satellite on Feb. 8 shows a western frontal system approaching the coastal low pressure area.
The satellite image, captured at 9:01 a.m. EST, shows clouds associated with the western frontal system stretching from Canada through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, into the Gulf of Mexico. The comma-shaped low pressure system located over the Atlantic, east of Virginia, is forecast to merge with the front and create a powerful nor’easter. The National Weather Service expects the merged storm to move northeast and drop between two to three feet of snow in parts of New England. [NASA]
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW SUMMARY...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NWD FROM NRN NJ AND SERN NY THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH RATES APPROACHING 1 INCH PER HOUR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. HEAVIEST RATES /2+ INCH PER HOUR/ ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING. DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A DEEP SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VORT MAX NEAR THE CNTRL VA COAST AND WITHIN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS IN PROGRESS FROM NJ INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF WARM FRONT. SNOW RATES WITHIN THIS AREA SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 0.5 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER LONG ISLAND SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING AS THE WARM NOSE AOB 850 MB BEGINS TO COOL WITH THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION NW OF THE LOW CENTER. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES A ZONE OF STRONG 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITHIN DEFORMATION AXIS JUST NE OF THE LOW CENTER OFF THE SRN NJ COAST. THIS ZONE OF STRONG FORCING AND MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL DEVELOP NWD THROUGH TODAY AS THE LEAD IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EJECTS TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL RATES WILL UNDERGO A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE FROM NRN NJ INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY EVENING AS ZONE OF ASCENT DEVELOPS NWD AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. THE SNOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP BANDED STRUCTURES THIS EVENING WITHIN THE NWD DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETIC ZONE...AND THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SLANTWISE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WITHIN THE BANDS.