A Wet Northeast Turns White Again This Weekend

A Wet Northeast Turns White Again This Weekend

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A Wet Northeast Turns White Again This Weekend

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It’s been kind of a crazy pattern so far for the Northeast the past few weeks.  It seems like it always rains within 36 hours of the temperatures going below zero.  The reason is that the cold just keeps on sliding off the coast as storms cut up towards the great lakes drawing up warm air ahead of them.  Vermont got lucky on Friday as a clipper expected to only bring a couple inches dropped 7  in Northern VT and then a couple more with another clipper over the weekend.  Stowe picked up 10 more inches this week bringing the season total to 95.

There was another storm last night that brought rain within 36 hours of the temps dropping below zero.  Today and lefover rain showers turn to snow showers as the cold air pours back in behind the storm.  The next storm for Friday looks like it will bring snow as the track is South of the area and off the coast instead of up through the great lakes.  That will allow the cold air to stay in place.  Here is the GEM forecast model of the storm for Friday.

It doesn’t look like it will be a strong storm right now but could bring snowfall in the 3-6 inch range for the mountains.  Some of the forecast models have tried to make a bigger storm out of it but once again it doesn’t look like the low coming up the coast will phase with the low coming across the lakes.  That is what would be needed to get a big storm to develop.  There is a clipper coming across the lakes again on Sunday that will bring light snow across the region.  Some of the forecast models try to phase this one as well with another low coming up the coast.  Here is the GEM for Sunday.

 This storm has the potential to become a bigger ticket item.  You can see here on the model that it is the stronger storm with the lower pressure and tigher gradient shown by the tigther rings.  You can see the other low coming across the lakes lagging behind the coastal low.  We would want to see them phase to get a big storm.  What helps these storms to phase is if the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is negative which tends to be associated with blocking over Greenland and a deeper trough with the cold holding stronger in the East.  The Northern jet comes further South and storms come up the coast giving them a better chance of phasing over the Northeast.  The NAO has been positive most of the Winter so far and is forecasted to only go neutral over the next week.  The AO (Arctic Oscillation) has gone negative which can in turn help to turn the NAO negative over the next couple of weeks.

Right now it looks like we will at least see some more light snow Sunday with maybe another 3-6 inches for the mountains.  Here is the total snowfall forecast through Sunday from the GFS model showing a broad area of 6-12 inches in the darker shade of blue over the Northeast .  This is 5 days out which is a littel early and it could change, especially if we get a stronger storm over the weekend.

 

It looks like the temperatures stay seasonal into the first half of next week with the possibility of a few more fast storms moving through bringing light amounts of snow.  Then it looks like a cold trough could build in over the entire East Coast by the 2nd week of February.  That could increase the chance for more snow and maybe a big storm finally.  BA

 

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