Last week the Northeast picked up several inches to over a foot of new snow at most of the ski resorts in VT, NH, and ME. This week they are picking up several inches of rain. The rain started on Monday as a cold front stalled across the Northeast. Tuesday ahd Wednesday more rain will arrive as a storm rides up the stalled front from the South. With temperatures up into the 50’s combined with the rain most of the snow should be washed away by Wednesday night.
The image below is from the GFS forecast model showing the rain falling on Wednesday morning. To put it simply to get snow you would need to be to the North of the blue line. The center of the red circles is the center of the storm which came up West of the mountains which puts the Northeast on the warm side of the storm.
Behind the storm colder air will move into the Northeast on Thursday and Friday and will last into the weekend. It’s not a strong shot of cold air but cold enough to get the snow guns firing at night to recover the lost snow. Highs will be in the 30’s and low 40’s with lows overnight in the 20’s. In the Northeast cold is king as they rely on snow guns more than most of the other ski regions. Many resorts can cover 75-90% of their terrain with man-made snow.
After the weekend there is strong shot of cold air heading into the Central part of the country and then the Northeast. It looks like the cold front could stall again through the Northeast on Monday bringing a cold rain to the mountains. After the front pushes slowly through on Tuesday it will get cold again. The cold is going to sit over the Northeast much of next week.
While the cold air sits over the Northeast next week we could see a couple of clipper type systems push through and bring light snowfall on top of what the snow guns are making. In this pattern of the trough in the Northeast some interesting things can happen. Some storms will be running up the coast and out to sea while the weak clipper storms move through from Canada. We will have to watch and see if we can phase some of the storms along the coast to produce a bigger snowfall event.
Looking at the forecast models there are signs that we could have a few chances of that happening. The first right after the cold front moves through the middle of next week as a storm rides up the front from the South and merges with clipper moving across the Northeast from Canada. Then possibly again with a similar scenario the following weekend.
Trying to forecast a big snow event this far out is taking a shot in the dark. For now the confidence is that it will get colder in the Northeast next week. Then the ingredients will be around for a bigger snow event to possibly take shape but we will have to watch and see. Stay tuned…BA