Tahoeloco.com – Tahoe Weather Geek
October 22, 2009 Tahoe’s weekend forecast is for mostly fair weather with a few temperature swings, and that’s also the outlook for the rest of the month. The recent warming trend is expected to pause today as a weak wave of energy out of the Pacific Northwest passes through and leaves a weak flow of cool air from the northeast in its wake. But by Friday the warm-up should resume as a ridge of high pressure along the coast continues to deflect several storm systems coming from the Gulf of Alaska up and over Oregon and California and into the Great Basin. Look for Friday to be a few degrees warmer than today, then Saturday repeats today’s conditions as another wave passes by to our north. Look for highs in the low to mid 60s around the Lake and the mid-50s at the mountain passes. Winds should be generally calm.
The strongest in this series of disturbances is forecast to come out of the Gulf on Sunday night and reach Oregon and Northern California by Monday. This one looks vigorous enough to make it past the ridge of high pressure, but its track will still be mainly to our north. At this point it looks like the precipitation line will be somewhere between Tahoe and the Oregon border. But if the system sags further south, there is still a chance we could see some rain and snow. After that one, look for another shot of fairly cold air as the flow turns straight north-south and we get a dry but chilly burst from the arctic by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Medium range outlook: The 6 to 10 day forecast from the US Climate Prediction Center is for above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. The same is true for the 8-to-14 day forecast. The storm track is expected to generally remain to our north for the remainder of the month.
El Nino update
El Nino update
Sea surface temperatures last week resumed the warming trend that is consistent with an El Nino event, ending a month of stagnation and even cooling that cast doubts on the potential strength of the event. Temperatures in the East Central tropics – known as region 3.4 – warmed two ticks to .9 degrees Celsius above average in the week ending Oct. 19. Temperatures in region 4, further west, rose to 1.2 degrees C above average last week, the warmest temperatures we have seen yet in this cycle. And in the region off the South American coast that had cooled to below average, temperatures bounced back last week to the average for that part of the ocean.It’s too soon to tell whether this is the beginning of a sustained warming trend or just another gyration in a roller-coaster year. And remember, the presence of El Nino does not always mean great ski weather: it can also bring a lot of warm, wet storms. But for now we’re focused on the numbers, and the numbers say the ocean is warming again. And if El Nino is what you crave, that’s a good sign.
MONTHLY WEATHER ALMANAC FOR OCTOBER TO DATE
TRUCKEE
High: 72 on Oct. 17
Low: 16 on Oct. 5
Average temp: 43.6
Departure from norm: -4.7
Precipitation: 2.85
Normal precip: 1.75
Percent of normal: 163%
Total snowfall: 0
S LAKE TAHOE
High: 73 on Oct. 17
Low: 21 on Oct. 5
Average temp: 45.4
Depature from norm: -2.05
Precipitation: 3.32
Normal precip: 2.05 inches
Percent of normal 162%
Total snowfall 3.7 inches
