The Winter Storm Watch issued for Lake Tahoe yesterday said we were expecting 1-2 feet above 7,000 feet. The Winter Storm Watch issued today is saying 10-18 inches above 7,000 feet. Not too big of a downgrade, but a downgrade nonetheless.
“I’m still amazed at the difference in total liquid with the second system between the GFS (computer forecast model) and the Euro (computer forecast model).”- TahoeWeatherDiscussion.com
“So I’m sticking with 6-12 inches at lake level, 12-18 inches above 7000 ft., and 18-24+ inches along the crest with the second system. Half coming Thursday afternoon and night and the other half Friday into Friday night.” - TahoeWeatherDiscussion.com
We’re all just hoping that another downgrade doesn’t occur. It appears that we’ll be okay and still get a big dump of snow Thursday/Friday.
But, this is kinda scary to hear, ‘cause it means they aren’t sure:
“…but latest runs show best support for heavier precipitation farther south across Mono County rather than the Tahoe Basin.” – noaa.gov
…and why aren’t there snow totals in the graphic above?
NOAA.gov WINTER STORM WATCH:
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* TIMING: SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SIERRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON… INCREASING IN INTENSITY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:10 TO 18 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE TAHOE AREA AND MONO COUNTY. BELOW 7000 FEET UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE TAHOE AND UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MONO COUNTY.
* WINDS: SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. RIDGE GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH.
NOAA.gov STORM DISCUSSION:
The second of the two storms will move into the area Thursday afternoon into Friday, and will be much stronger than the first. It will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air, keeping snow levels in the 4000 to 5000 foot range, and has more precipitation associated with it. There is the potential for heavy snow in the Sierra above 7000 feet, especially west of Highway 89 and moderate to heavy snow below 7000 feet. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect Thursday evening through Friday evening for the Greater Lake Tahoe area and Mono County. Models have not been consistent with the best location for precipitation,but latest runs show best support for heavier precipitation farther south across Mono County rather than the Tahoe Basin [OUCH].Travel will likely be impacted across all Sierra passes Thursday night into Friday. The storm is cold enough to bring snow into the lower Western Nevada Valleys, though it will be hard to accumulate on roadways during the day due to mid-spring sun angle. Light accumulation on grass and dirt surfaces is possible. High temperatures on Friday will be 15 to 20 degrees below normal with snow showers continuing throughout the day. Keep an eye on NWS forecasts for the latest as better model agreement could result in upgrading the winter watch to either an advisory or a warning for the Tahoe Basin and/or Mono County.