6-10 precipitation map shows low precipitation probability for Tahoe

They are talking about a small snow storm on Tuesday.  They were talking about it being a decent snow maker, but now, the storm is forecasted to hit a ridge of high pressure, split apart, and weaken (sound familiar?).  The GFS model is showing 3-6 inches in the Tahoe basin for Tuesday while the European model shows only a few clouds.  The mean between the two is likely which is another 1/32” – 1/8” storm total (sound familiar?).

Where does this all leave us?  Well, this leaves us looking at no significant new snow until at least past the middle of the month.

“There is confidence a storm will approach the coast, there is just not confidence in how well it will hold together and how much precip we will see.  Either way it doesn’t look like more than a quick shot of several inches if the storm is able to hold together.” – TahoeWeatherDiscussion.com

 

RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND STRONG JET IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE A SPLIT FLOW INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA NEXT WEEK. THIS RAISES UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE SURVIVING THE SPLIT FLOW INTO THE WEST COAST. – noaa.gov

Light precipitation for Tahoe

There is the chance of another storm next Saturday, the 11th, but this storm is likely going to split apart as well.

NEXT SPLITTING SYSTEM MAY REACH THE SIERRA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS VERY POOR AND ANY SYSTEM REACHING THE SIERRA WILL BE WEAK. – noaa.gov

And then?  Then, the pattern just looks like crap for Tahoe.

BEYOND THIS WEEK, MODELS HOLD AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH PRESIDENTS DAY WEEKEND. CERTAINLY NOT A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE SIERRA. – noaa.gov

The translation for above quote is really that no significant new snow will come to Tahoe past the 20th of February (presidents day weekend)!  FML.  That is basically saying that all of February will be dry.  Hope noaa is wrong on this one.

If you’ve been hanging on and hoping that the season turns around and we end up having an average snowfall year, it may be time to start letting go…

“I think I have mentioned this before but the past 2 seasons were only the 3rd time we had back to back seasons with over 500 inches on Donner Summit in the past 100 years.  The only time we ever had three years in a row was back in the 1890′s when we had 5 years in a row.” – TahoeWeatherForecast.com

As of February 1st Lake Tahoe was at:

- 26% of normal-to-date snow depth

- 44% of normal-to-date snowfall

- 59% of normal-to-date precipitation

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22 Comments

  1. DaBrah says:

    Tahoe Fing sucks this year. Towel = thrown in.

    Reply
  2. Snowrydah says:

    Not much better here in the Central Rockies,Colorado. :o( The snowpack that we do have up here is Sh#t…
    We just got another trace last night Woo – hoo!

    Reply
  3. Skierr Man says:

    my hopes for a real season are officially gone

    Reply
  4. Anonymous says:

    From a recent Craigslist ad for Squaw tickets.

    Up for trade, yes, trade, two Squaw valley and/or Alpine meadows adult, SquallywoodMeadows, a.k.a. SquallyMart, full day tickets vaild for entire remainder of 2011/2012 season.

    Squaw/KSL/Andy Wirth/mgmt screwed us gold pass holders again and is offering a measly 2 free tickets in compensation for allowing silver and bronze pass holders to ski MLK weekend that were originally not allowed. Thus the flood of tickets to Squally on Craigs. Ain’t WIRTH a S#*T as you can see, so lets ‘make a deal’.

    They are legit tickets from Squaw given to Gold Season pass holders. Worth from what you can find currently on craigs between $45-75.00 ea. Reg price full adult all day tickets now sell for 92.00 each at Squaw/Alpine

    Let’s say $120-$140 fair market value. Wine, food, electronics, clothing or accessories, sunglasses, skis, tools, auto , sporting goods, etc, etc. Should be in new or near new condition.

    Will consider other items, services, etc. massage, tax prep, legal, creative, web, etc.

    What have ya got?

    Most offers will be entertained except of sexual nature which would be pretty creepy, ewwwww.

    I would prefer a trade just cuz, but if you want to offer $$, I’ll consider that too.

    Reply
  5. Junk Show says:

    The gold pass holders complaining about MLK are idiots. I was at Squaw on Sunday of MLK and it was empty. All the lifts except Squaw Creek shut down for wind and it was still empty. By buying a Gold pass you are guaranteeing that you can ski MLK weekend; you are not buying a guarantee that others cannot ski on those days. Man, some people at Squaw can be whiny, spoiled, entitled beeatches sometimes.

    Reply
  6. cousin vinny says:

    put all tahoe residents on suicide watch.

    Reply
  7. Squallykook says:

    i’m sick of the bitchin ’bout lack of snow! get out there and ski/ride anyway. i for one am enjoying being out there in the sun and not having to fight the masses in line for an hour to ski tracked out pow. gotta appreciate what you got.

    Reply
  8. huck it from tahoe says:

    Hold fast and have hope! i mean BA from the Tahoe weather discussion will tell anyone that forecasts more than a week out loose accuracy.. And were sitting here on the 3rd of February … like they REALLY know whats going to happen on the 20th

    Reply
  9. NoNeedForAName says:

    I’m so glad i’m in jackson this year.

    Reply
  10. Anonymous says:

    Props to the ninja’s who fixed the Funi part. Baaaad ASSSSES!!!

    Here’s the deal, this is SQUAW, f-ing SQUAW folks. Breeder of many other bad assess year in year out.

    So I hold mgmt and ops to a higher standard. And that’s you too Patrol, quit being so soft…

    this ain’t freakin Northstar or Steamboat.

    Reverse traverse is fine and all, but two freaking old, slow chairs for access is F-ing ridiculous. Bunch of LARRY’s!!!

    Open Headwall, keep the gapers OFF expert terrain, have guest services send anybody down the headwall ramp who can’t make it up. Even the face to hogsback skied fine for me,, EXPERT terrain, means EXPERT terrain!!!

    Stop dumbing down expert terrain for the masses!!!! Especially during MID-WEEK cycles. F@#K Nuts!!!

    Sunbowl to CII area was pretty sweet, but only a dozen runs or so compared to whatever the hell we could get off Headwall chair if it was spinning. I just don’t get it!!!! Especially if Rock garden is closed.

    Excuses, Excuses,,, MT ORDINARY Management for sure,,,,

    Reply
  11. Anonymous says:

    y’all need to lighten up, just a bit, and have a laugh, funny shee
    http://www.craigslist.org/about/best/sea/2597736393.html

    Reply
  12. Anonymous says:

    This is a great year to travel

    Reply
  13. Toots says:

    sing wimmee humans….

    hmmmm hmmmm hmmmmm hmmmmm hmmmm hmmmm hmmmm (yeah)

    hmmmm hmmmm hmmmmm hhhmmmmm hmmmm mmhhmm mmmm (yeah)

    and so on…..

    Now go wash your car again.

    Reply
  14. Anonymous says:

    wish we could trade in unused season passes for next year…

    Reply
  15. time says:

    Mar – May is expecting a return to more normal precip and temp conditions. (ENSO-neutral). Don’t hold your breath for a massive spring powpocalypse, but it should be wetter than January. Let’s just hope it’s not in the form of the ‘r-word’.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

    Reply

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