Farmers Almanac’ Winter Weather Map for 2013
In the Fall of 2012, we reported on the Farmers Almanac Winter Weather Map for 2013. As you might imagine, the Farmers Almanac – so far this winter – has gotten a few predictions correct and a few far from accurate.
What the Farmers Almanac has gotten right with their Winter 2013 Prediction.
- The most accurate prediction the Farmers Almanac has made so far this winter has been that the North East would be “Cold and Snowy”. The north east has indeed been very cold and snowy with Montreal, Canada receiving record-breaking snowfall.
What the Farmers Almanac has gotten wrong with their Winter 2013 Prediction.
- The Farmers Almanac predicted that this winter the Pacific North West would be “Drier Than Normal and Chilly Temps”. In fact, the Pacific North West has seen one of the snowiest years on record. Stevens Pass, WA went on to break it’s all time snowfall record for December.
How Accurate Is The FARMER’S ALMANACS?
For nigh on to two centuries, Americans have taken a gander at farmer’s almanacs for auguries about the weather. Millions of readers think they are the bee’s knees but atmospheric scientists scoff at the ability of olde-tyme formulas to prognosticate the weather.
“Based on my own analysis, and that of others, the monthly mean forecasts published by the ‘Old Farmer’s Almanac’ (OFA) lack value,” Nick Bond, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Washington’s State Climatologist, told Discovery News.
The “Farmers’ Almanac” and the “Old Farmer’s Almanac” are in competition with each other, but also face stiff competition from meteorologists with millions of dollars worth of satellites, radar dishes and other new-fangled contraptions.
The “Farmers’ Almanac” has weathered these scientific advances with stalwart faith in the founder’s formula.
“The formula we use dates back to 1818. It is a mathematical and astronomical formula that takes sunspot activity, tidal action of the moon and position of the planets into consideration. The complete formula is known only by our weather prognosticator — Caleb Weatherbee,” said Sandi Duncan, managing editor of the “Farmers’ Almanac.”
“The forecasts are sometimes correct. In terms of getting the sense of the weather anomalies right, for example whether it will be colder or warmer than normal, the OFA is correct about 50 percent of the time,” said Bond.
“Of course this is no better than flipping a coin,” he added.
Jan Null of Golden Gate Weather Services has compared “Old Farmer’s Almanac” forecasts to actual weather conditions across the United States for much of the 2000′s. His results corroborate those of Bond.