[Forecast courtesy of Powderchasers]
Summary 3/6/18
March rolled in with a bang for much of the west, with the East on tap for significant snow mid week. Moderate to occasionally heavy snow is due for the Cascades by late Thursday that eventually teases the Rockies this weekend. The extended looks deep for the Sierra again. Chase from East to west this week! New England will score 11-20 inches by late Thursday.
Short Term Forecast:
New England will begin to see snow by late Wednesday. The New York metro area grabs freshies by Wednesday morning. You may see 5-9 inches in the Berkshires by late Wednesday and head north into Vermont, NH, or Maine for 1st chair Thursday. Cold temperatures inland will put up 11-18 inches for most resorts in central and southern New England with some isolated areas at 25 inches by Thursday afternoon. Western MA, Southern or central Vermont, or western Maine stand the highest odds of the 15 plus mark. Areas further north towards Stowe or Jay Peak will see 5-10 inches followed by NW winds Thursday that may tip the scales into Thursday night (Upslope flow) allowing a chance to catch the south. You will be able to ski freshies at Jay Peak and Stowe Thursday and again Friday (5-10 plus 4-8). I would chase from Killington and south Thursday and consider northern areas late Thursday or early Friday. Highlights also include western areas of New Hampshire– Wildcat will score big), and most of Maine.
In the West, which just scored 20-30 inches (Wyoming and Utah), activity will focus on The Cascades with leftovers aimed at The Rockies. Warming on Wednesday/Thursday Is followed by much colder temps on Friday. Your going to be dodging rain mixed with snow at the bases (4,000 foot snow levels) Thursday with much better quality for Friday morning (12-16).
Wet snow is likely Thursday in The Cascades (Rain at some of the bases) before colder air moves in for Friday. Moderate to heavy dumps are likely in many areas by late Friday. Chase points may include Stevens Pass, Crystal, or Mt Baker with Oregon resorts on the wildcard list. I would plan on riding late Thursday (3-6) and early Friday (Storm totals in the 9-15 inch range). Temps are going to be tricky on Thursday with your best odds of colder temps the further north you travel.
Schweitzer in the Panhandle of Idaho should stay in the cool sector Friday morning with 8-13 inches possible.
The weekend will land leftovers over the Rockies with low confidence on any deep dumps except northern areas. Central Idaho may see higher amounts as well as the Tetons. Warmer temps in The Tetons will keep quality less than the blower they saw Monday. Amounts in the Tetons should reach 8-13 inches by Saturday (Steady light or moderate snow every 6 hours from Thursday night-Saturday. You may not see any 12 hour period with double digits.
The Sierra gets a tease on Saturday-Sunday with moderate snow just north of Tahoe. Additional moisture from an Atmospheric River event will stream north into Mono County bringing 4-9 inches to Mammoth by Sunday morning. Resorts in the Tahoe basin will see lower amounts.
Extended Forecast:
Next week features a return of unsettled conditions for the Pacific Northwest. Unfortunately, warming will be occurring making any long term chases unlikely. It’s possible that Whistler land some decent numbers early next week especially at the summit. Aim north and stay high! Otherwise head to the Sierra mid week. Another highlight that we have not talked about this season is New Mexico. Its possible a southern stream of high elevation snow bring moderate to heavy snow to many ski resorts in the Enchanted State (Rain at lower elevations).
There is a good signal on models that a significant storm impact the Sierra by Wednesday next week (FEET). Each model run consistently has showed colder temps and snowfall. This deserves watching and will likely by our spotlight at some point in our future chase forecast. New England also looks to pick up more significant snow in the long term forecast beginning this weekend (It may not entirely stop this week). Significant totals will come out of New England over the next 5 days.
– Powderchaser Steve
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