That’s right, NOAA’s ENSO blog just release a post saying, “The bottom line is that we’re giving the odds of developing El Niño conditions a slight edge for fall 2017, with the probability around 50%.” Meanwhile the chances of a La Niña event are only 12% for this incoming fall.
The last autumn saw a dip in equatorial sea surface temperatures that had climate experts calling for a La Niña event to last through the spring but as of late, those sea surface temperatures have leveled off– creating a neutral heat state for the Pacific. Models predict that such neutrality will last until the fall, at which point sea surface temps have a 50% chance of rising to El Niño levels.
“Overall, the atmosphere/ocean system is demonstrating that it’s returned to ENSO-neutral conditions, putting an end to the not-so-great La Niña of 2016/17.” – NOAA
These predictions are made with very small confidence due to the uncertainty that follows the spring transition period but that’s not stopping anyone from making predictions on whether or not “The Child” will impact western ski resorts during the 2017/2018 ski season.
Find the entire ENSO post here: Bye-bye, La Niña!