First La Niña was in, then La Niña was out, and now she’s come back to the party according to NOAA.
So in order to keep their outlook / forecasts uniform, NOAA just released an updated winter weather outlook that’s not only more accurate but focuses on the northern rockies seeing a cold and snowy conditions throughout the 2016-2017 winter season.
“Regardless of the outlook, there is always some chance for extreme winter weather, so prepare now for what might come later this winter.” – Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center
The forecast is largely based on new ENSO predictions that put this particular La Nina as brief and weak. Still, that slight change could tip the scales in favor of the northern rockies including Schweitzer, Sun Valley, Big Sky, Whitefish, and Jackson Hole.
LET IT SNOW!
- Wetter than normal conditions are most likely in the northern Rockies, around the Great Lakes, in Hawaii and in western Alaska
- Drier than normal conditions are most likely across the entire southern U.S. and southern Alaska.
- Warmer than normal conditions are most likely across the southern U.S., extending northward through the central Rockies, in Hawaii, in western and northern Alaska and in northern New England.
- Cooler conditions are most likely across the northern tier from Montana to western Michigan.
- The rest of the country falls into the “equal chance” category, meaning that there is not a strong enough climate signal in these areas to shift the odds, so they have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation.
NOAA Press release
Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued the U.S. Winter Outlook today, saying that La Nina is expected to influence winter conditions this year. The Climate Prediction Center issued a La Nina watch this month, predicting the climate phenomenon is likely to develop in late fall or early winter. La Nina favors drier, warmer winters in the southern U.S and wetter, cooler conditions in the northern U.S. Read the whole press release.
Clicking on the maps will show a larger version that includes Alaska and Hawaii.