NOAA’s latest long range forecast is looking solid for the West with nearly the entire Western USA forecasted to see above average precipitation in the weeks ahead.
This is following a very dry February that saw nearly no snow anywhere in North America (except for California).
The only thing that could put a damper on all the precipitation forecasted for the West is high temperatures that could turn all that beautiful snowfall into rain.
Official Long Range Forecast From NOAA
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 300 PM EST FRI FEBRUARY 26 2016
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 – 11 2016
TODAY’S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD,AND SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE EXPECTED 6-10 DAY FLOW PATTERN. THE MOST RECENT DETERMINISTIC GFS RUN (INITIALIZED AT 12Z) DIFFERS FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THAT IT FORECASTS A PRONOUNCED NEGATIVE TILT IN A TROUGH ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WEST COAST STATES AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS SOLUTION ALSO PREDICTS A NEGATIVE TILT TO A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. IF CORRECT (AND IT IS TODAY’S OUTLIER), ONE OR TWO MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
THE TWO MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED IN THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN (FROM THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD) INCLUDE THE PREDICTED EXPANSION OF ENHANCED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST, AND THE TRANSITION FROM FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. FOR PRECIPITATION, THE LARGEST CHANGE IS THE ANTICIPATED TRANSITION FROM FAVORED BELOW MEDIAN TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY’S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY’S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY’S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY’S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY’S OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY’S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 15% OF TODAY’S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, BUT OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN VARIOUS SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA