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Winter Weather Prediction / Forecast 2013- 2014

From NOAA.gov

NOAA has just released their long range forecast for the winter of 2013 -2014. At this point they don’t seem to have a clear picture of what weather will unfold during the upcoming winter with many parts of the US having equal chance of being above normal, normal or below normal winters. Below are maps of both the temperature probability and the precipitation probability for the winter of 2013 – 2014.

November, December, January 2013 – 2014 

NDJ Long Range Wethaer Forecast For Winter 2014 November, December, January Temperature Probability

Precipitation NDJ

November, December, January Precipitation Probability

January,February, March – 2014

off07_temp

 January, February, March Temperature Probability

off07_prcp

December, January & February Winter Precipitation Forecast

Fore more on all this all means here is Powderchaser Steve.

Data from the National Climate Prediction Center at this point is teasing us to believe that December to January stands an equal chance of being below normal or above normal for snowfall for the Western States.  Latest model guidance suggests neither strong El Nino or LA Nina and a good bet for near normal snowfall or what weather climatologists say “Neutral pattern.” My thoughts are leaning towards a higher chance of DEEP in the Sierra and Southern Rockies especially by mid January early February. The history shows that many areas like the Wasatch and Northern Rockies can do well with both La Nina and El Nino.  Neutral may favor the Central Rockes slightly?

The East Coast and Mid Atlantic may see near normal snowfall this winter with slightly warmer temperatures.

Temperatures in the West will stay near to above normal with the exception of the Northwest where colder temps will kick in by mid winter.  The Rockies and northern Alaska might see above normal temperatures early this winter.

As a powderchaser I have learned never to rely on early data!  As we get closer to Fall reliability increases.  This info is an early heads up for those weather gurus that insist on looking at it.  The next update will be issued in Mid July.

Powderchaser Steve

Powderchasers.com 

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26 Comments

  1. Mike says:

    It’s amazing how accurate weather forecasting has become. To be able to predict with such accuracy the amount of snow we will be receiving six months from now is nothing short of amazing! It truly is a golden age we are living in! Can you please tell me what the base depth will be for Jackson Whole on February 16th 2014? I will be visiting with my entire family from Texas and would like to know where the good powder will be.

    Reply
  2. Come on, Man! says:

    Summer’s just started. You’re gonna go and tease us with snowfall outlook for next ski season? I’m going fishing.

    Reply
  3. ronron says:

    I wish this sham of a .gov agency would just close up shop and die forever.

    “This winter there may be a lot or a little bit of snow between September 2013 and July 2023. There will also be slightly above or below normal precipitation or there might be much more or less”.
    -NOAA

    Is this where our taxes are going? Gimme a f%^&ing break!

    Reply
  4. ronron says:

    I wish this sham of a .gov agency would just close up shop and die forever. The predictions are vague and obscure and change every day.

    “This winter there may be a lot or a little bit of snow between September 2013 and July 2023. There will also be slightly above or below normal precipitation or there might be much more or less”.
    -NOAA

    Is this where our taxes are going? Gimme a f%^&ing break!

    Reply
  5. buddy says:

    It appears the hurricane will strike the east coast somewhere between New England and Miami.

    Reply
  6. Pdaddy says:

    Accurate as throwing a dart at the map.. What a joke

    Reply
  7. slim says:

    Or as my brother in Seattle says ” partly partly followed by periods of mostly mostly”

    Reply
  8. I predict there will never be enough snow to satify my needs and that I’ll ski every fricken day I can as long as its safe in the back country and maybe a couple days when its not that safe. It’ll rain at some point on the east coast and crush are souls and will ski in that, too and after its all said and done will toast to being go getters and enjoying what ever love mother nature throws at us. And definately claim it to be the best skiing we’ve ever done, for one reason or another. We want more. we want more. when you like something we want more.

    Reply
  9. nalegtx says:

    ********** NOAA WINTER 2014 UPDATE **********

    Recent data suggest an increase of the possibility that there could be and could not be snow during the time period of DEC 2013 – APR 2014 , with a chance for the possibility of normal temperatures give or take 20 degrees …..North of the Mason-Dixon line should expect some type of winter precip some where between those dates…insufficient data at this time to analyze total precip amounts. Will let you know how much will fall the day after the storm=)

    Reply
  10. Gerry says:

    Why do they even print this B.S., anyway. Nobody knows how these weather forecasts are going to play out. I’ll bet anyone that everything these forecasters are predicting is going to end up being the exact opposite.

    Reply
  11. jesus christ says:

    They do it because it’s their job and you bunch of burnouts are interpreting a long range educated guess as if it’s supposed to be a forecast for tomorrow. As for the guy bitching about taxes… NOAA’s annual budget averages around 4-5billion for the last 3 years. The defense budget is at 526 billion. As far as I know this forecast is based on ocean temperatures, it’s not magic, it’s an educated guess.

    The normal reaction to this forecast would be take it with a grain of salt, not get yourself all worked up over taxes and the science of meteorology in general. If you hate paying a miniscule amount for tornado/flood/hurricane warnings then maybe don’t live here?

    Reply
  12. Suzi says:

    I sure hope fall and winter pass quickly and mildly in the mid-Atlantic. I cannot abide the usual grey skies and lousy snow.

    Reply
  13. steve s says:

    Maybe it partially cloudy/foggy in the brains of tea party members

    Reply
  14. Hey there just wanted to give you a quick heads up.
    The text in your post seem to be running off the screen in Opera.

    I’m not sure if this is a format issue or something to do with web browser compatibility but I figured I’d post to let you know.
    The design look great though! Hope you get the problem fixed soon.
    Kudos

    Reply

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