Winter Weather Forecast for 2012-2013 Ski Season.

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Winters Of 2012, 2013, 2014 Could Be Frigid!

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Winters Of 2012, 2013, 2014 Could Be Frigid! 

By Kirstie Hettinga

AccuWeather.com: Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi believes there is a significant chance for particularly frigid winters in 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 into 2014-2015.  Bastardi said these winters could be similar to winters of the late 1970s.   He said, “While the most consistent of the cold is to the north, severe bouts of cold deep into Texas and Florida would be capable of affecting agriculture more so than we’ve seen in that last 20 years or so.”

A combination of factors that parallel the precursors to historically cold winters is leading Bastardi to this forecast.

He said, “We have a cold Pacific now. We had a La Nina, El Nino, then a stronger La Nina [similar to the cycle] that happened in the early to mid ’70s that set up the winters of the late ’70s.”

These weather patterns, plus the wild cards of volcanic activity and solar activity, have Bastardi looking ahead.

“The last time we had arctic volcanoes go off, in 1912—similar to what we had two winters ago—the winters three years removed got very bad across the United States,” Bastardi said.

“If we put together the combination of La Nina, El Nino, La Nina again and we look at what happened when that happened before with a cold Pacific, and we also understand that the volcanoes may be involved along with the low sunspot activity, one could come to the conclusion that a series of very cold winters … could be on the way,” he said.   Bastardi said this is all part of a natural pattern of reversal which he believes will lead to a crash in global temperatures over the next nine months, from the very warm levels set off by El Nino—as forecast globally by AccuWeather.com.

In the longer term, this is all part of a cyclical event which Bastardi believes will return the earth’s temperatures by 2030 back to where they were in the late ’70s at the end of the last cold PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation or El Nino like pattern] and the beginning of the satellite era of measuring temperatures objectively.

By Kirstie Hettinga

 

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54 comments
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  • One Question

    Does a cold winter mean more snow accumulation?? I wonder what the snow accumulations looked like in the late ’70s (in CO, I don’t care about CA)

  • La Nina

    Hopefully snowfall doesn’t compare. For JH snow totals for 77, 78, 79 were 177″ (Worst year ever), 438″, 352″.

    • wheepickle

      that’s what I was kinda thinking.. frigid cold temps in montana might mean clear skies all winter long…. it’s just too cold to snow when it gets frigid.

      • Rail Tycoon

        um actually science really. Cold air holds less water than warm air. Thus, when it cools down the water comes out, as snow sometimes. But if you have really cold air to begin with it, there is very little water in it. No water=no snow. Yes, it can be too cold to snow.

      • haha ya he is right

        actually tycoons right.i live in tahoe, and have for the last ten years. last year was pretty cold…. didnt get anything in the way of snow. just sunny and cold.. the year before it was a lot milder, one of our best winters on record. its a fact dick

      • nickbeeindatetons

        i’m a climatologist from jacksonj, wy and i’m here to tell brian to get bent.

      • Anonymous

        Erm…you are quick to say someone else is dumb for something you obviously know nothing about. Wow…

  • Mark

    Weather forecasting, especially long term is a joke. Most of these assholes have no idea what is or isn’t going to happen. Remember all the professor types hyping the 1000″ Sierra winter last year? The only thing that is certain is that the days will be shorter and colder than the longer and hotter summer ones. Other than that, I’d take a Magic 8 Ball’s predictive prowess over these clowns.

    • Bigger Sky

      Patterns have been showing the PNW and far northern rockies have been getting more and more precip, while the central and southern rockies have and will get less. cali is up in the air…

      • Anonymous

        yeah it really depends on the jet stream. 2010 looked just like 2011 wrt precip if you spent the former in LA and the latter 800 miles north.

    • Dave O

      Up, way up in Maine the people can smell the snow coming. The breath through their NOSE and they will tell you and they down care if the sun is out. I’ve witness this ans it’s scarey but true

  • Realistic

    We also heard last winter was going to be big. I’m just going to hope this winter will be better significantly than last winter.

  • CHUCK CARDILLO

    I AM A WEATHER FANATIC AND I LIVE IN THE CATSKILLS IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. AFTER LAST YEARS JOKE FOR A WINTER, I AM CERTAINLY LOOKING FORWARD TO A GOOD OLD FASHIONED WINTER THIS YEAR. JOE AND YOUR FELLOW METEOROLIGISTS BRING IT ON. I THINK WITH THE CURRENT EL NINO DEVELOPING AND THE WARMER WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC WE WILL SEE ALOT OF PHASING ALONG THE COAST TO PRODUCE TO GREAT STORMS ALONG THE NORTHEAST , SOMETHING THAT WAS TOTALLY ABSENT LAST YEAR….

  • No Tier

    Sorry for you in the northern interior. When moisture is moving through, you have clouds and they keep it warmer. You get record cold on the clear nights.

    Not that I believe any of what Bastardi says. Any respectable scientist’s long-term forecasts three years out are a crapshoot blind dart toss, but he’s a notorious denialist of human-caused climate change. It just fits too neatly with his ideology for me to believe he is looking objectively at science when he predicts a 30-year cycle.

    Mother Nature has the final word.

  • Mark

    Weather forecasting, especially long term is a joke. Most of these assholes have no idea what is or isn’t going to happen. Remember all the professor types hyping the 1000″ Sierra winter last year? The only thing that is certain is that the days will be shorter and colder than the longer and hotter summer ones. Other than that, I’d take a Magic 8 Ball’s predictive prowess over these clowns.

  • Mark

    Weather forecasting, especially long term is a joke. Most of these assholes have no idea what is or isn’t going to happen. Remember all the professor types hyping the 1000″ Sierra winter last year? The only thing that is certain is that the days will be shorter and colder than the longer and hotter summer ones. Other than that, I’d take a Magic 8 Ball’s predictive prowess over these clowns,

  • jo

    More important than La Nina and El Nino is the possibility of another high pressure ridge blocking like an NFL lineman. Even if the ocean does throw storms at the coast, we wont see shit if the high pressure ridge sits in the way right off the coast of cali. PNW and Alaska would be slammed again.

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  • mnwildfan

    I will believe it when I see it, but hopefully it’s a cold winter for good ice and ice fishing!!! But like last year we had a wet spring and wet early summer we got a ridge of high pressure that lasted through the winter, and winter is a long way off yet

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  • cnyrider

    I’m from the tug hill region of NY and all i can say is that around here we get our weather report by looking out the window, the lake effect snow here is crazy it could be snowing 4+ inches an hour at 9am and by noon a little wind will come out of the north or south and the lake effect will move 30 miles in either direction then be back over us again by the evening, the forecasters do their best but if you ask anyone who knows about it they’ll tell you its absolutely impossible to forecast lake effect snow

  • dean

    Our local weatherman said last nite because the el nino is weakening that Buffalo New York and western New York is going to have a very mild winter the same as last year. does anyone know if this makes sense and what’s the prediction is for 2012 2013 winter for Western New York?

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  • SNOWNOW

    Hey dean, You know, I just lived through winter 2012-2013 and I know that it’s not like that. NYC got around 30 inches which is +5″ than the average. My hometown got more than 38″ when our average is 33″

  • Brenda

    I am in Idaho and I totally remember the snow storms in the late 70s. I lived here then moved to Conn for two years. It was a wild experience having all that snow. Moved back to Idaho in 82 and we were snowed in for a week. But I am a winter person and I love the snow. I can hardly wait. Tired of the heat and all the fires.

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