Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012 | Another extreme winter for many parts of the US


Powdershots, Skiing Alta, Skiing Snowbird, Alta Backcountry, Snowbird Backcountry, Snowbird Local info, Alta local info, alta powder, snowbird powder, freeskiing, freeriding, Unofficial Snowbird, Unofficial networks, Daryn Edmunds, Alta Videos, Snowbird Videos, Alta, Snowbirdphoto courtesy of powdershots.com

ExactaWeather.com sent us over their long range winter weather forecast for the 2011-2012 winter season but first here is a bit about Exacta Weather.

Exacta Weather is a non-profit weather organisation that comprises a team of meteorologists from around the world.

Our long range specialist forecaster James Madden states that there is “a potentially record breaking US winter for 2011-2012 with extremely cold temperatures and exceptional levels of snow”.

James Madden’s forecast is based on major natural factors, including solar activity, and how they impact the weather and climate on Earth. His forecasting techniques have attracted significant attention after correctly forecasting seasonal trends in the UK – and proving the Met Office wrong on three successive occasions, before they decided to scrap seasonal forecasts altogether.

Another extreme winter for many parts of the US


US Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012


The coldest winter in 30 years was recorded across many parts of the US during the 2010-2011 winter. Eastern parts of the US plunged to a record -50F with the Northeast of the US also seeing records broken. Temperatures was also largely below normal averages for New York, Chicago, New Orleans, and Minneapolis. Snowstorms shattered New York City in December 2010 and January 2011 to become the snowiest January ever recorded.


So let’s turn to the US winter of 2011/2012.


La Niña cools the equatorial seas of the Pacific and was one of the strongest on record during 2010/2011. Less warm air rises during La Niña conditions with a cooling influence on the atmosphere that has big implications on global climate and global weather patterns. The changes in global weather patterns come from air pressure changes in atmospheric cycles called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NOA) and Arctic Oscillation (AO).


The latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) update suggests neutral conditions ahead, but a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) may yet suggest otherwise. The PDO is a pattern of Pacific climate variance that recently switched to negative (cold) and will remain that way for the next two to three decades. It is likely that La Niña will return more frequently during this time period as a negative PDO results in stronger La Niña (cooling) and weaker El Niño (warming) episodes.


Low solar activity is also a primary driver of atmospheric cycles that influence blocking activity patterns/ridges.


Our weather models consider all of these factors and are currently showing a particularly harsh winter for many parts of the US during 2011-2012. Large parts of Central and North America will face below average temperatures with above average snowfall throughout this winter, with temperatures in many Eastern and Western parts also showing as below average with above average snowfall amounts.


We expect the Pacific Northwest region to experience a very severe winter and the Cascades snowpack is likely to see increased levels due to the negative (cold) phase of PDO. Our weather models are also showing an increased likelihood for major snow events in Northeastern and Midwestern parts of the US throughout December 2011 and January 2012, that could see severe blizzard conditions hit New York City and Chicago.


With low solar activity levels, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the general trend for a much colder winter after the onset of last year’s La Niña, this winter could prove to be a record breaker with extremely cold temperatures and exceptional levels of snow for many parts of the US.



  • geopatty

    I would like to weigh in here. First let me say, having the warmest winter since the 1990’s does not “prove” global warming is real. Second, I agree with previous posters, it needs to be called “Climate Change” rather than global warming. Over the history of the earth there have been many periods of warming and cooling. For all we know, our ancestors will be complaining about the giant ice sheet in their backyards in the next few thousand years. Lastly, while I do not doubt that humans have attributed green house gases to the earth’s atmosphere, the cycle of global warming and cooling cycles occurred BEFORE the industrial revolution happened and will continue to occur long after humans no longer inhabit the earth. Despite that fact though, I agree humans need to ween themselves off our dependence on oil and other limited natural resources for more than one reason, but that’s a whole other thread!

  • Keith

    Guys, remember the REACTORS that blew up in JAPAN after the TSUNAMI? You see, the gases went into the air, and it is making the temperature WARMER Were are having a small nuclear winter. Remember what happened in Vermont? how they had a HUGE FLOOD? See? that was about a few months after the REACTORS in JAPAN blew up. Its not a coincidence. DON’T YOU UNDERSTAND? that is why the weather is all in a bunch, and you can’t argue that. Remember what happened in the 70’s in Vermont? exactly. This is real. This is WHY the weather is acting up.

  • dash

    This winter stinks it snows like 3 inches and then it melts. I’m trying to get money from shoveling snow but there is no snow to shovel. Worst winter ever. :(

  • rick

    I can’t wait till the Oceans Acidify and Hydrogen Sulfied is Emitted into the Atmosphere thanks to human beings that can’t see the forest for the trees, most are very un-educated about what’s happening. The planet is heating up and we are the cause, governments and corporations are doing their best to keep it from the public, because, of the money involved and we as a species don’t care yet, but you will soon enough so stop having children in a world that is falling apart it makes no sense at all.

  • wanda

    How about chemtrails & before you say,”Oh my God” another nut case,do your homework,Find out what is really going on….When is the last time you heard a bird sing? Can we say,Barium,aluminim,zinc,lead & tin?

  • Kevin

    *Chuckles* Where would we be without all these brilliant forecasters and their crystal balls? The lower forty-eight states of the U.S. are actually having one of their mildest and least snowy Winters in recent memory.

  • @sebumsmassage

    Only GOD can predict the end date. what happens throughout history, it seems to me, its obvious that history repeats itself. The big issue here is that man is trying to play GOD. Informing us the exact date of the end.; impossible. GOD sends warnings before mass distractions. Man needs to give GOD total credit for his for-warnings, continue to update the universe by paying close attention to nature itself. So its either La Nina(cooling) or El Niño(global warming).

    • geopatty

      The problem is that humans leave these issues to “god” to figure out and deal with. People need to take responsibility for themselves and not rely on a god to take care of them & their destiny. Humans have a choice to change, and maybe even reverse, the harm we are doing to the planet. But the problem is that humans as a whole think they are above everything, they are the top of the food chain. If we want to clear whole rain forests, or drive an animal to extinction or pollute our water supplies then we do it and don’t give even a second to ponder what may happen to other living things on this earth. I am NOT a tree-hugger, but I DO believe we should all take the big picture into consideration before we make the earth a place where we can’t or don’t want to live.

  • MelM.

    This long-rang forecast seems to be exactly opposite of what is happening here in the mid-west, we are having record high temps. not record lows.

  • MichiganMan

    Most winter predictions given out during the summer and fall of last year were wrong, but holy crap, this one is the most wrong I’ve seen yet. I’ll tell ya, I live in mid/Northern Michigan… we’ve only seen 4 days where I’d call them “arctic” cold. We’ve seen way more rainy days than snow days. In fact, we should have had over 40 inches of snow by now in an average year, we’ve had less than NINE. I’m tired of global warming naysayers and their excuses. Every year it’s El Nini, La Nina, jet stream, this or that, this year they blame the arctic oscillation and La Nina. Well, we’re having an average La Nina year which should NOT be giving us these warm temps. Also, it’s been abnormally warm across most of the Northern Hemisphere this winter. Finland and Norway didn’t have snow at Christmas. This Summer is going to be bad. The ground will warm up FAST. No snow pack. No spring snow melt essential for lakes, rivers, ground water. It’s supposed to be 50 again here tomorrow. Global warming is real, I’ve always believed it and it just gets more and more obvious every year.

    • MichiganMan

      Also forgot to add the lakes have not froze over and those frozen lakes moderate Michigan’s temperature in the springtime. They’ll start to heat up fast in Spring. Hell, probably before spring.

  • shavez ahmed siddiqui

    first of all thanks everybody and mr.konrad for giving this knowledge ……………….i have keen interest in this feild and the above information is very helpful

  • Rick

    Global Warming is man-made and if you think that we can pollute at unprecedented rates not seen before in history and not effect the planet in some way, then you are a fool. It has been proven by over 9 hundred scientists so quit fooling yourself. The only reason that we aren’t taking responsibility is because we do not want to change, its all about money and nothing more it’s called greed. Whether you take responsibility or not won’t matter future generations will pay for our Stupidity and that’s a Fact.

      • rick

        Another Denier I see, watch and see for yourself and take a deep breath of hydrogen sulfied fool

    • geopatty

      Earth’s cycles of warming and cooling started long before human’s industrial revolution and will continue long after humans are gone. Human’s did not “create” global warming. Yes, human activities have added green house gases to earth’s atmosphere, but “global warming” is not an effect of anything man-made. I agree there is a lot to be made (and has been made) by certain fear mongers preaching about global warming. But it’s the people that buy into the fear mongering that are enabling those people to continue to make more money.

      • geopatty

        If the money made off fear mongering was put towards finding alternative energy sources, then we’d probably all be driving hydrogen cars! (or at least a lot closer to being able to do so).

  • Jerry RUBIN

    How so very wrong your forecast has been this winter 2011-2012 in the Midwest. I just can believe how much your model have been inaccurate. Back to the drawing boards (as they use to say), now the computer screens.

    Farmers almanac was usually a miss, but it is time to upgrade your technology and your computations!!!!!!!!

  • isaiah B.

    This winter is substantially warmer than previous years up in canada. or from what ive seen. which pisses me off because i snowmobile. but im thinking its just a cycle

  • Randy

    Record breaking high temps happening alot this winter. No snow on the ground here in South Dakota. It is nice driving to work an not have to fight blowing snow and snow drifts.

  • Josh

    I have never been through a winter so mild here in the North West… It has been above average temps since October. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not complaining, I like it!

  • Bob

    Great predictions….no snow on the ground in Michigan and barely any has fallen this season so far! That and way above normal temps…love how “smart” people think they can predict things like the weather!

    Back to the drawing board.

  • Mittenmamma

    I live in the middle of the mitten and its been 38 – 40 most of the week and tomorrow it will probably hit 50. We have not had any snow. Sure, 2 days of flurries but thats it. I just checked our extended forcast and its looking like 35-40 thru the 15th. All the forcasts we read, said December and Jan were going to be cold and extreme amouts of snow, where is it??

  • Bud

    It’s amazing.. 50 degrees in iowa today.. jan 4th, 2012 and I havent seen a single snowflake this winter. the temp has only been down in the teens to single digits for lows only a couple times and the daily temps are always in the upper 30s and 45-50 degrees has be pretty normal right now… who says it’s cold???

  • Dirk

    I’m getting a little tired of the number of people who seem to think that the mere presence of man on this planet is such a negative thing. You are so quick to reach the conclusion that just about everything we do is detrimental to the planet. That is simply not true. You point to pollution, deforestation, etc. and seem to think that we contribute absolutely nothing positive to the well-being of this place. I beg to differ.

    The planet- nature- has a way of purging itself and overcoming its own challenges and obstacles. We have realized that we were doing sme things wrong; we passed laws. Our air is cleaner than it was 40 years ago; many bodies of water are making a tremendous comeback- the Great Lakes for example- and deforestation is a myth.

    If you knew anyting about the logging industry, you would know that is it the same thing as farming, except that instead of harvesting every year, like for corn, you harvest every 10, 15, or 25 years. Loggers are farmers, no more, no less. They take care of their land and their crops to ensure that there will be plenty available for years to come- because they want to make money. It’s easy to take a picture of a clear cut area and demonize the entire industry, but the reality is that logging practices are good for the forest and he environment, not to mention all of the good things they provide us to make our lives better.

    Finally, the Earth has been around for billions of years and will be around for a very long time after the last humans disappear. We’re just passing here, a short, temporary, and in the big picture, probably pretty insignificant blip in the history of this rock. Anyone who thinks we can predict it, change it, destroy it, fix it, or control it in any way, is an arrogant dreamer. And that includes, and probably especially, climate.

    • rick

      Oh yess it will purg itself but eradicating the virus known as man-kind, we are living contray to nature and that will not continue much longer. You think you can spit in mother natures face I laugh at you. I believe known scientist’s before you, so you keep denying reality and see how far that takes you we will kill this planet and ourselves in the process, because, of GREED!!!!!

      That’s Reality!!!!

  • Jonathan

    First of all I would like to comment that any of you, like Joe B, who deny the fact that humans are causing the climate to change( along with species extinction, massive deforestation and many other earth destruction practices) are not only in denial but are ignorant and frankly just stupid. But what I really wanted to point out is that all the predictions about the harsh winter and heavy snow in the Pacific Northwest are wrong. I live in the mountains of Southern Oregon at about 5000 feet and we usually have at least 2 feet of snow on the ground. We have NONE. Zero. Zip. This is very concerning as there is only been a total deficit of snow in December only 7 times in recorded history. Although it is only the beginning of January there is still time for snow but frankly it is looking bleak. Anyway I will keep you informed.

  • brad

    I live in middle Georgia and thus far have been dissapointed in this weather,it was too warm to get into the holidays, and the short coldsnaps that have been brief and ongoing since October leave me to beleive, we will have no snow this winter,in fact trending forward if the pattern doesnt change it will be full blown spring in march down here!

  • Rick

    I hope all you fools that think Global Warming is a hoax are enjoying yourself’s, because, your demise is imminent and that is base of scientific fact. People only want to believe what suits them, science says that human activates are what is causing global warming. But, people have a problem with being held accountable but as we continue to ignore facts the planet’s environment continues to get worse year after year and science said already that it will be different all over the planet. The wind has already become more extreme and storm’s are more intense, but you keep on doubting and in a few years let me know how that works out for you.

  • Cristian

    Why is this happening on Chicago???? Why there’s no prognostics for snow in next few days when they are talking about the worst winter for us?

  • Realist

    The earth’s climate is not stable. It changes over time, and every year is different.

    How long has the human race actually been recording weather patterns, temperatures, precipitation, ocean surface temps, jet streams, humidity levels, C02 levels, etc?

    What, maybe collecting that data accurately over the last 100 years?

    Know fact: The earth’s surface temperature has been on a wave, varying every 50 -70 years of about 1 degree celcius.

    Funny thing is, we are and have been on the downswing of that wave for the last 30 years.

    Global Warming? Media just needs something else to scare us about.

    Can someone acutally proove to me that the earth is heating up due to C02 gas? No known evidence.

    For you ski hounds….. we all know for every ‘soft winter’ comes a ‘hard winter’…. Maybe not so much is a pattern, but it all equals out.

    Not sure who is driving this ‘false’ global warming scam…..

    Needs to stop…….

  • B

    Weather is whatever mother nature has in store. I believe that we can reduce pollution in the air, but that is to keep humans healthy not the Earth. Car fumes affect our bodies like cancer, disease, and even compromising our immune system. As for our temperatures and natural disasters that is strictly mother nature. In Oklahoma there is a saying ” If you don’t like the weather stay a while it will change” that is so true. We could have a blizzArd one week and a heat wave the next. Our climate is always changing.

  • whatever

    There has not been one flake of snow here so far this winter, it is the warmest one Ive ever expierenced, personally I hope those they say global warming isnt happening are right, cuzI am a little concerned now!

    • Rick

      Trust me they are wrong, it is happening and you are experiencing the results and it is only the beginning it will get much worse. There is more information on the internet then ever before, 900 scientists can’t be wrong. Those denying it are paid by oil corporations also a proven fact

  • Rick

    Whether you believe in global warming and climate change or not won’t make a bit of a difference, it’s happening and we are responsible. The human species has an accountability problem and can’t take the fact that he has F–ed up, he is a goof and stupid to boot. But our extinction is inevitable we keep supporting the criminals that want to destroy the planet all for the almighty buck retards.

  • national weather service

    weather patterns shift. if u have not notticed its in the 50 now but its getting colder. we will get slamed with snow in january and febuarry so get out your plows and salt.

  • Julia

    No one can predict this. People can’t even forecast for the next few tays. This is wrong. It’s Maine, December, Raining, and 50 degrees.
    Yep, totally cold, brutal and snowy.
    God I hate this weather. :'( Might as well be spring now if it’s not going to snow.

  • andrew

    interesting. here in australia there is far less contention on the issue of anthropogenic global warming (ie we mostly side with the vast majority of science on the subject). I myself see it as a combination of both factors. sadly, whatever the cause you may choose, our own small but very much loved alpine regions here in australia are shrinking. which sucks.

    • goodtallviking

      So, Andrew, I take it you agree with us scientists that (a) the planet has been generally cooling over the last decade and (b) there is no conceivable way that the trivial amounts of CO2 man produces could affect the global temperature ? Great. I did not realize y’all paid Plimer that much attention down under.

Add your comment

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s